Beautiful Football & Weekend Forecast

Iowa State begins its' football season tonight against Kent State here in Ames, IA. The forecast for the game should be nearly perfect with temperatures near 70 and winds fairly light. The rest of the night should feature lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s and some foggy conditions by morning in lower lying areas. Friday will warm up slightly once again, highs ranging from the upper 70s in northeast Iowa to the mid 80s throughout western Iowa. Some moisture will also be returning to the state, not allowing the lows to slip quite as much at night. Friday night lows should range from the mid 50s to near 60 in the west.

The weekend forecast is just as good if not better than the past couple of days. We'll stay dry throughout the whole weekend with highs in the low to mid 80s on Saturday, warming a few degrees on Sunday with ranges from the mid to upper 80s. Lows will also be warmer with a little more moisture in the air; upper 50s to mid 60s throughout. Finally the Labor Day forecast will continue the streak of warmer weather. Highs in the mid 80s to near 90 from northeast to southwest; lows in the lower to mid 60s.

Read More

August 28 Severe Weather

8:50 PM Update: Severe thunderstorms as well as brief tornadic thunderstorms have worked across the state this evening and are currently stretched over a good portion of the state. Only one warning currently in effect for Marshall county, for damaging winds. Other warnings have been issued with that storm for some time now since it entered the state back at 6:30 PM. The tornado warnings were issued in response to spotter or public reports of tornadoes on the ground, although these storms weren't classic tornado producers they did have signs of strong rotation due to their interaction with different boundaries. Whether or not any of these tornadoes will be confirmed on what their rating will be will come tomorrow. For the most part, it was damaging winds that swept through from Monona & Harrison eastward through Marshall county currently... Expect additional heavy rains throughout the eastern and southern portions of the state overnight.

4:35 PM Update: Severe weather has begun to threaten the state, as storms continue to develop ahead and along the cold front. Severe thunderstorms in eastern Nebraska have been ongoing for the past hour, with a new thunderstorm recently becoming tornadic now in northwest Iowa. Plymouth county is under a tornado warning until 5 PM, this storm will be near the towns of Hinton and Kingsley over the next 30 minutes. No reports have came in with this storm, however radar has shown good signs of rotation within the cell for a while now. Expect additional storms to become severe with mainly damaging winds and large hail as the threats over the next several hours...

12:00 PM Update: Looking at latest satellite/radar, thunderstorms already developing along leading edge of cold front over northwest Iowa. Cherokee, Clay, Dickinson & Emmet counties all have isolated thunderstorms currently working to the northeast. Although none of these storms are severe at this time, expect gradual strengthening into severe storms by mid-afternoon over portions of the northwestern quarter of the state.

11:50 AM Update: Latest update from the Storm Prediction Center has raised probabilities over the northwestern half of the state. Indicating that several lines and clusters of thunderstorms should develop late this afternoon into this evening along a cold front that is moving southeastward over the state. These thunderstorms may become severe and be capable of large hail and especially damaging winds. The best threat is defined along the location of the cold front during the evening hours, which is currently forecasted to be 50 miles northwest and southeast of a S. Sioux City, NE to Albert Lea, MN line. Additional Updates are likely this afternoon as storms evolve.

Read More

Thunderstorms Tonight

Yesterday morning had the only thunderstorms of the day for the state, with only the northeastern quarter of the state being affected by them. A few severe reports came in of marginally severe hail during the morning thunderstorms. The afternoon was filled with hot and humid air, but the hot air extended will up into the atmosphere essentially capping it to the point of no thunderstorms. That capping however isn't expected to hold on this afternoon as thunderstorms become likely over much of the northwestern half of the state.

Highs today expected in the upper 70s for northwest Iowa to mid 90s in southeast Iowa where the cold front will have no effect today. Expect thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon or this evening over northwest Iowa and continue to spread southeastward into the overnight hours and through extreme southeastern Iowa early Wednesday morning. Lows tonight will range from near 60 to near 70 from northwest to southeast. Thunderstorms could do quite a bit of 'training', where they follow the same path along the cold front as it moves to the southeast. This is why several counties across the state are once again in a Flood Watch. The possibility is also there for a few severe storms, currently the best risk is over the northeastern quarter of the state where damaging winds is the likely threat. More information on that threat as it develops this afternoon...

Expect cooler temperatures on Wednesday with highs only in the mid 70s to lower 80s across the state and lows becoming chilly from 50 degrees in the northwest to near 60 in the southeast. Thursday & Friday both finish off the week with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s and lows in the 50s on Thursday, warming slightly into the mid 50s to lower 60s for Friday night.

Read More

A New Week... New Thunderstorm Chances...

We begin the work week with something that not a lot of places need to see, thunderstorm chances. In fact, extreme northwestern Iowa is under a 'slight' risk for severe weather this evening and into the early nighttime hours. Threat for large hail and some damaging winds are the main threats as storms will fire along a cold front that is slowly moving southeastward.

This storm system is already responsible for some thunderstorm activity that is making its' way across northeastern and central Iowa this morning. Once those storms clear, expect the sun to shine and high temperatures warm up nicely with an increasing southerly wind over the state. Mid 80s for the northeastern part of the state where clouds will hang around for some of the day, otherwise upper 80s for central Iowa and low to mid 90s across the western third of the state. Thunderstorm chances tonight over northern Iowa; lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s across the state. Once again there is a chance that a few storms tonight could reach severe limits over extreme northwestern Iowa.

Thunderstorms chances should overtake much of the northwestern half of the state by Tuesday afternoon, with some potential for severe weather across the state as well. Details on the severe threat for tomorrow will be better defined and explained during tomorrow mornings' update. Highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s in the southeastern half of the state ahead of the cold front; while behind the front expect highs only in the upper 70s and lower 80s. By Tuesday night expect thunderstorms stretched across the state from LaCrosse, WI to Omaha, NE moving southeastward with the chance of a few severe thunderstorms and the possibility of more heavy rain over the state. Lows during the overnight will range from the lower 60s to lower 70s from northwest to southeast.

Rain/thunderstorm chances continue over the southeastern half of the state on Wednesday, mainly during the morning and early afternoon hours before exiting the state. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s from northwest to southeast once again as the state should be behind the cold front. Lows on Wednesday night in the mid 50s to lower 60s as well, making for a near chilly night.

Read More

A Dry Weekend!

After over a week of rain throughout parts of the state and seeing nearly two dozen different counties put under flood warnings the rain is finally gone. Monday night looks like the first time where more rain comes into the forecast, however this rain should only stay in the forecast for 36 hours or less.

With a dry forecast, any kind of temperatures should be suitable. Todays' highs should range from the mid 70s to near 80 from north to south. Lows tonight will be quite nice and nearly chilly for some people, mid 50s to lower 60s from northeast to southwest over the state. Lows in that range signify that the moisture that has hung out over the state for the past week is finally on its' way out with that system that is now effecting portions of the eastern US.

Sunday will be much the same, dry with warming temperatures. Highs in the lower 80s in the north, to some mid 80s in south-central Iowa and possibly a few upper 80s in the southwest portion of the state. Lows will signify the return of moisture, with lower 60s over northeast Iowa to near 70 along the Missouri River.

A quick look at the beginning of the workweek will show off the return of the heat as well to go with the moisture. High temperatures expected to be in the mid 80s over eastern Iowa to the lower 90s across western Iowa. That heat and humidity will also begin the next chance of thunderstorms over the state, too early to tell about the severe threat, but I'd put on a likely chance that we will see at least another 'Slight' risk day or two over the state by the Storm Prediction Center.

Read More

August 23 Lightning

Got the chance last night to head out just before a storm came through Ames and catch some lightning pictures. Several of the previous days have featured great electric storms, but they had all been wrapped up in the massive amounts of rain that were coming down with them. Last nights' storm was finally able to put off some good bolts out in front of the rain and here they are:

Click on image for larger picture...

Read More

Showers & Thunderstorms Continue...

7:20 PM Update: Severe Thunderstorm Watch #646 has been issued for portions of southeast Iowa and is in effect until midnight. Thundrestorms currently over Keokuk, Jefferson & Wapello counties are severe warning and should continue to pose a threat of damaging winds and marginally large hail over the next couple of hours as the move eastward.

6:15 PM Update: Severe Thunderstorm Watch #644 was issued for portions of southern Iowa and is in effect until midnight tonight. Already thunderstorms have became severe and tornadic over south-central Iowa; Tornado warning for Mahaska county and severe thunderstorm warnings for Marion, Decatur & Wayne counties. No reports as of yet, but that'll likely change as the storms continue to move to the northeast. Expect more thunderstorms to move into the state during the nighttime hours as they move into the state from Nebraska and continue to develop due to the strong low level jet. Those in and near the watch should keep a close eye on storms as they will rapidly develop and have severe potential; those counties next in line for a possible tornadic storm will include Keokuk.

7:30 AM Update:Showers and thunderstorms continued to work across the state this morning and currently are weakening in response to morning inhibition. Central Iowa is currently experiencing the rainfall, north of highway 30 mainly showers exist while south of highway 30 isolated thunderstorms are continuing to develop. Expect the showers in the north to slowly dissipate, however thunderstorms in the southern portions of the state should continue to develop and expand as they move northeastward. The severe weather threat looks to be fairly minimal today for Iowa, although eastern Iowa is under a 'moderate' risk by the SPC. This is due to the expectations of the storms to organize into a linear line or bow echo capable of damaging winds. Reading through the SPC text it appears that the current convection is going to be responsible for the linear storm system early this afternoon and into this evening. However, it does not show signs of organization at the moment.

Expect thunderstorms to continue to fire throughout southern Iowa this morning, until upper trough that is currently over SD/NE makes its' way into the state. This feature should lead to the organization of thunderstorms, and subsequently increasing the severe threat over the central and eastern portions of the state. Damaging winds are the main threat today with the storms as they are likely to be more linear in nature. More updates are possible this afternoon as thunderstorms begin to organize...

Read More

Severe Weather (Aug. 22)

7:30 PM Update: Thunderstorms continued to develop across south-central Iowa late this afternoon and have now moved into eastern Iowa this evening. Another round of thunderstorms is now entering the state from Nebraska, showers more notable north of I80 while thunderstorms dominate south of the interstate. Expect those storms and showers to continue off to the east/northeast this evening and into tonight. It does not look like the severe threat is of much concern anymore as continued rainfall and cloud cover has limited its' potential. A stray severe thunderstorm could still be possible over southern Iowa before midnight, but the main threat with thunderstorms should once again be heavy rains & flooding potential.

3:25 PM Update: Severe Thunderstorm Watch #637 has been issued for areas of northern Kansas, central/eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Thunderstorms are expected in increase in coverage & intensity over KS/NE along boundaries this afternoon/evening. These storms should move eastward with several other lines/clusters of thunderstorms and move into the remainder of NE/IA by this evening. Isolated large hail is the main threat with these thunderstorms, although some damaging winds may also occur.

3:00 PM Update: Scattered showers and thunderstorms have continued across much of northern Iowa this afternoon and are still working their way through northeastern Iowa currently. Additional thunderstorm development has occurred south of the previous convection, much of southwest and southcentral Iowa are seeing these scattered storms develop. Currently only one of those storms has been able to reach severe limits, capable of marginally severe hail, over Fremont & Mills counties. Other storms may be able to reach severe limits for a short period of time this afternoon, with the main threat being marginally severe hail. The SPC has issued a Mesoscale Discussion for this reason, mentioning that a severe thunderstorm watch is possible.

10:30 AM Update: Once again the state is under the 'slight' risk for severe weather today, already thunderstorms are continuing to fire along a stationary boundary over northwest Iowa. These thunderstorms continue back to the west into Nebraska and with storms moving in an eastward direction this doesn't bode well for the flooding concerns. Flash Flood Warnings currently are in effect for Woodbury, Plymouth, Cherokee, Ida and Buena Vista counties; expect more rainfall over the next couple of hours and other counties to the east could also be included.

The severe weather threat is likely to be best off to the west of Iowa, over areas of central Nebraska for the most part. However, portions of western Iowa will likely see some isolated severe storms work into the area early tonight and continue through the nighttime hours over the remainder of the state. Currently, Sac county is under a severe thunderstorm warning for the possibility of nickel sized hail. Although a few storms might reach severe limits late this morning into early this afternoon, do expect another round of thunderstorms tonight. More details on the next round of thunderstorms and possible severe weather later today...

Read More

Severe Weather (Aug. 21)

10:15 Update: Thunderstorms moving into northeast Iowa have increasingly become severe with the potential for damaging winds. Floyd, Butler & Chickasaw counties are currently under warnings. Counties to the east of those should keep an eye/ear out to local information as the storms head their way. Another storm in Sac county has also became severe with the potential for damaging winds and large hail. Expect the next couple of hours to feature pulses of severe storms, while a majority of the storms say below severe limits. Nonetheless any storm could be capable of some small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph, dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning and torrential rains capable of causing flash flooding.

9:45 PM Update: A line of thunderstorms over Iowa continues to move to the east, mainly non-severe at the moment. It extends in from MN to Mason City to Hampton, then back to Ida Grove where the line then becomes less defined. Storms may pulse up and become severe for the next couple of hours, mainly capable of moderate sized hail and damaging winds up to 70 mph. The main concern with these storms is now the flash flooding, especially over parts of central Iowa where storms are beginning to 'train' or follow the same path. Several counties are already under Flash Flood Warnings, several more may be added as the night continue.

8:10 PM Update: Severe Thunderstorm Watch #635 has been issued for portions of northeastern Iowa. Thunderstorms will continue to develop and spread eastward into the overnight hours. Expect mainly damaging winds and large hail as the severe threats as the storms will be mainly linear or multicellular in nature.

7:50 PM Update: Warnings continue to be issued in northwest Iowa as storms eastward, now beginning to enter portions of north-central Iowa. Severe thunderstorm warnings are issued for Woodbury & Palo Alto counties; more recently a Tornado Warning has been issued for Humboldt and Pocahontas counties. The towns of Rolfe, Bradgate and Ottosen are in the path of this storm and possible tornado. Currently only radar has detected rotation, no on-site reports have been received.

7:00 PM Update: Tornado Watch #634 has been issued for much of the northwestern quarter of the state. This watch is in effect from 6:50 until 2 AM tonight, thunderstorms have already initiated ahead of storms in NE/SD over northwestern Iowa. Cherokee county is currently under a severe thunderstorm warning as a storm is capable of nickel sized hail. Expect storms to continue to strengthen over the next couple of hours as the cells move northeast. Storms should congeal into more linear segments capable of damaging winds and large hail, possible tornadic condition could still exist late tonight, but not likely.

4:45 PM Update: A Severe Thunderstorm Watch & a Tornado Watch have been issued for portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. The tornado watch is in effect until 10 PM for the counties included, hugging the northwestern Iowa county lines. Thunderstorms should develop in the watch area within the next couple of hours and move to the east/northeast into the state just after sunset. Expect that a severe or possibly a tornado watch will be issued later this evening for some portions of the state as storms begin to threaten the area. Later updates will continue to reveal any information on possible storms & severe weather.

10:15 AM Update: More severe weather is possible this evening and overnight tonight across the state. Thunderstorms expected to develop over central Nebraska once again, moving eastward into Iowa this evening. There is once again a highlighted area that may see a better chance at some of the individual cells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado. This area stretches from about Norfolk, NE through Sioux City to around the Storm Lake, IA area; 30 miles north and south of that line. Other portions of the state may see thunderstorms as well, but there is no enhanced threats and the main concern may once again be damaging wind and some smaller sized hail. Updates on the severe weather tonight are possible once again...

Read More

Severe Weather (Aug. 20)

10:40 PM Update: Severe thunderstorm warnings stretch across much of central Iowa as a line of thunderstorms mainly capable of damaging winds has developed. I previously was just outside of Ames in attempt of some lightning photos, however a majority of the strikes were within the rain core and thus the attempt was futile. Expect these storms to continue off to the east/northeast with some severe warnings continuing into the nighttime hours. Wind damage will be the main threat, with heavy rains also being a problem for several areas. This may be the last update for the night; for now if you are west of a Spencer to Des Moines to Leon line you should be in the clear for severe weather.

8:15 PM Update: Warnings continue to spread over southwest Iowa; Audubon, Guthrie, Cass & Adair are the latest to go under severe warnings for the bow echo line of storms that is capable of gusts up to 80 mph. Reports have been received with winds of at least 80 mph in other counties previously warned and these storms are likely to at least maintain intensity for the time being. Severe Thunderstorm Watch #626 has been issued, covering much of western & central Iowa until 2 AM.

7:45 PM Update: Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for Pottawattamie & Mills county for damaging winds between 60 and 70 mph; Harrison county now also included. Additional watches are likely to be issued in the next couple of hours, Mesoscale Discussion #1823 discusses the potential for areas north and east of the current tornado watch; MD #1824 discusses the increasing damaging wind threat to the east of the current watch.

7:30 PM Update: Severe & Tornadic thunderstorms are currently moving through southeastern Nebraska and will soon cross the border into Iowa. Harrison, Pottawattamie, Mills and Fremont will be the first tier of counties that will be under the gun from these storms. The storms are currently moving east, on an average speed of 45 mph and should work their way further into the state as the evening turns to night. Other scattered thunderstorms are also developing over northeastern Nebraska & southeastern SD and they may also have some potential of becoming severe. These will also work eastward and make it into the state during the early nighttime hours. Those in the path of storms be ready to take immediate action once warnings are issued, continued updates are possible throughout the night.

4:00 PM Update: The Tornado Watch has been issued for portions of southwest and west-central Iowa. Tornado Watch #623 is in effect until 10 PM; thunderstorms should continue to develop in eastern Nebraska and move into the state this evening. Expect that additional watches may be issued later tonight as storms congeal into line segments and pose more of a wind and hail threat.

3:30 PM Update: This morning saw round 1 of severe weather make its' way through western Iowa. This morning a line of thunderstorms entered the state from SD/NE moving southeastward and became severe soon after entering the state. 3 large hail reports and 4 damaging wind reports came in from those storms, the strongest wind being 70 mph from Storm Lake. Other damage included trees and even a house roof was partially blown off near Charter Oak. Hail reports were fairly minimal, all reports an inch or less from this mornings' storms.

Another round of severe weather is expected over the western half of the state this evening and overnight. The Storm Prediction Center has indicated the thunderstorms with the potential for large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are likely to develop this afternoon and a watch will be issued shortly. This watch will probably be a tornado watch that covers the western couple tiers of counties and last into the early nighttime hours. Continued Severe Weather Updates Likely this Afternoon...

Read More