Another Week of Sun!

Although not as warm as the previous week that was full of sunny conditions, this week will continue to have a nice fall feel to it with above normal highs through the remainder of the work week.  Under the clear conditions we'll see highs average in the upper 50s across northern Iowa, near 60 across central Iowa, and into the lower 60s and even mid-60s across the southeast and southwest portions of the state.  These conditions won't be completely ideal as we see some gusty winds of 10-20 mph or greater for both Wednesday and Thursday.  If you can deal with the wind, then this week will be another great one for you to enjoy!

The first trough in the mid-levels will work its' way and settle into the west, leaving the plains with favorable southwest flow to allow the potential for rain showers.  A cold front will move through the northern plains late this week, across the state of Iowa on Friday bringing with it the chance for rain showers.  With the passage of the cold front we will see temperatures drop to near-normal temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the state over the weekend.  Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies will also leave us with a bit less sunshine through the weekend...

Beyond the weekend we are looking at the potential for a strong storm system to work its' way onto the plains as the deep trough in the west moves onto the plains and has the potential to become a cutoff low.  This system has the potential to bring some hefty rains, and perhaps some frozen precipitation along the lows path as it moves across the central plains.  More information on this storm system as the week continues and models hopefully begin to come into an agreement.

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The Sunshine Continues...

It has been amazing to be able to see the sun for so many consecutive days!  Today will be a bit breezy with southerly winds blowing up warm air at 15-25 mph with some higher gusts possible.  However, temperatures will be pushed up into the 60s and 70s across the state with the aid of this southerly wind.  The cooler temperatures will be confined to the northeast part of the state, where they are a little behind with the temperatures just above the surface.  These temperatures just above the surface will be mixed down today with the aid of those strong winds.  Where the temperatures aloft are cooler, the high temperatures won't be quite as high.  For the portions of western and south-central Iowa, high temperatures in the lower 70s are expected!  The wind will decrease for Saturday, but temperatures will still remain quite nice under the sunshine.  Highs ranging from the mid 60s across a majority of the state, to the upper 60s and near 70 over the southern third.  The latest weather story from the  Des Moines NWS office shows just that, with highs for today and Saturday depicted across the state:

Another sunny day, but once again slightly cooler, will remain for Sunday.  Followed by a chance of showers as a weak cool front blows through the state on Sunday night.  We'll rebound pretty good with sunny skies for a majority of next week, but high temperatures will likely be held in the 50s and lows in the 30s.

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Enjoy the Day! - New Blog Feature

You can't ask for too much more from a early November day across the state of Iowa.  Temperatures are ranging from the upper 40s to the upper 50s across much of western and central Iowa; with the 40s across the eastern third due to some lingering cloud cover.  We'll likely see a few more days just like this, and likely even warmer, across the state through the remainder of the week.  Clear and sunny skies will give way to temperatures in the 50s and 60s through Saturday this week before our next storm system begins to move in for early next week.  Be sure to get out and enjoy the true fall weather, as October seemed to skip that part.

You'll also notice a new feature on the blog, Twitter Updates!  I recently joined the Twitter world in order to provide a few updates in between blog posts.  This may especially be useful for quick and short updates while on a storm chase, or for general updates on situations.  I'll be sure to note to watch for twitter updates on such occasions, or just be sure to follow me on my twitter page.

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Light Rainfall

A band of light rain continues to work across portions of western Minnesota and western Iowa, stretching from just northwest of Des Moines, IA to near Fargo, ND.  Typical rainfall values from this line have been less than a tenth of an inch, with only a few isolated spots showing up with greater amounts across southwest Minnesota.  This band of rainfall is occurring ahead of a weak warm front that is working eastward in association with a low pressure system that is located over North Dakota.  Expect this light rainfall to continue to work eastward across portions of Minnesota and Iowa through the evening hours.  Accumulations should continue to be light with only a few hundredths of an inch of rain expected as the rain lasts for only a few hours at most.

Latest Upper Mississippi Radar Image

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A 'Normal' Start to November

After a top ten coldest and wettest month of October across the state of Iowa, and likely so for nearby areas as well, we look to start off the first full week of November in a fairly 'normal' fashion.  Temperatures look to be near normal, likely a few degrees below; and precipitation looks to be intermittent and with total accumulations of a few tenths at most during each of the events.  This sounds much better to those who are wanting to enjoy a little bit of the fall season and is especially helpful for the farmers still wanting to get into the field to complete their harvesting.  Unfortunately, the ground is very wet from the past weeks of rain, and will likely still take several days of dry and sunny weather to dry out the crop.  With light rains potentially in the forecast for this week, we may see the harvesting continue to be delayed by a wet crop.

High temperatures through the week look to range from the lower to upper 50s from roughly north to south on Monday, which will likely be the warmest day of the week.  Continued temperatures ranging from the lower 50s to mid 50s from northeast to southwest across the state through the remainder of the week.  A few locations in northeast Iowa may only see the highs in the upper 40s, as they will remain the cool spot as the upper level trough is steady across the Great Lakes and northeast regions.  Low temperatures will vary a little more, with upper 20s to mid 30s on Monday night from northeast to southwest.  Lower to upper 30s from north to south can be expected on Tuesday and Wednesday night; with a degree or two drop for Thursday and Friday nights' lows.

Precipitation chances enter the forecast due to the passing of two shortwaves that ride the flow across the northern plains on Tuesday and Thursday.  Tuesday's precipitation chances are best throughout the day across the state, higher in the west during the morning hours and in the east during the evening.  Total accumulations expected between a few hundredths to a couple of tenths at most for Tuesday's system.  Thursday's precipitation chances are best during the afternoon and evening hours across the state, with total accumulations of up to a quarter-inch possible.  This is a generalized pattern over the state of Iowa for the week, so you can expect some portions to miss out on these small rainfalls while others may receive the brunt of both systems.

Looking out beyond this week, models are beginning to indicate another large trough to work its' way onto the plains for the time frame of Nov. 9-11.  Precipitation chances are very hard to nail down at this point, and temperatures may see a small window of above normal before likely falling below normal for the remainder of the week (Nov. 12-14) across much of the northern plains.  More details on that system in later updates...

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Snow Totals Through Oct. 29

The map below is courtesy of the Interactive Snow Information web page, it shows the latest snow depth information provided at 1AM this morning.  I have switched the views to a high contrast on the image to allow a little better detail, and you can see several locations of 16-20 inches and even isolated higher amounts.  Keep in mind that snow continued to fall through the night across other areas to the north and east, thus an updated map tomorrow may show accumulations in those areas.

The weather pattern seems to go quiet for a period after this system, with only a weak trough settling through the weekend across the northern plains and then a high pressure system working into the forecast for what looks to be the remainder of the week next week.  Our next big storm system appears in the GFS for the time frame of Nov. 10-12 give or take a few days dependent upon your location on the plains.  Check out the map and legend of the snowfall accumulations below:

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Oct. 28/29 Snowfall

Snow has been falling this morning in the mountain regions of the west, with upwards of 4-6" already being reported in several areas with an additional foot plus still to fall this afternoon and into tonight.  Two bloggers that may be of interest for those of you wanting to keep up with the storm in the Denver area can visit the Tornadoes Kick blog and the Carlson's Blog.  There may be some additional people, so just keep track of the links displayed in the right of the blog to watch for any mentions of snow.

In addition to the snow threat, further east onto the plains states will see the threat of severe weather!  Today's threat extends through the central plains including Oklahoma and Texas, and tomorrows threat is across the Lower Mississippi Valley regions of OK/TX/AR/LA.  Please check out the latest SPC updates and outlooks for more information on the severe weather threats across those aforementioned regions.

In the meantime, you can check out some of the model forecasted snowfall amounts through the next 72 hours across the mountainous west and the high plains of Nebraska and South Dakota.  Needless to say you can see why Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for much of those regions!

00z GFS CONUS Snowfall for 72hrs

00z NAM CONUS Snowfall for 72hrs

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Oct. 28/29 Storm System

A potent storm system will setup a closed upper-level low over the inter-mountain west during the morning hours tomorrow, that will continue to progress northeastward into the northern plains on Thursday.  This upper level low will evolve into a deep trough as the strong flow aloft pushes the closed low onto the plains.  This storm system will bring moderate to heavy snow across the mountainous west as well as the high plains of western Nebraska and South Dakota.  The system will also produce moderate and locally heavy rainfall across the rest of the central and northern Plains through Friday.  This heavy rainfall across the plains is definitely not a welcome site to most areas that continue to try to harvest crops and finish fall projects that have been hampered by intermittent rains throughout the past month.

Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories have been issued across the mountainous west and high plains as snowfall should begin as early as tonight.  Total snowfall accumulations are likely to be in the 6-12 inch range across the high plains, and even higher in the mountain regions and in localized areas.  Widespread precipitation amounts greater than .25-.50 inches are likely across the plains, with localized areas of an inch or greater across the plains through Thursday.  As the event evolves expect widespread rains to also continue across the lower Mississippi River Valley from Thursday and Friday with amounts well above an inch.  This rainfall in conjunction with a secondary low that will likely form ahead of the continued deep trough.  Severe weather is possible across the central and southern plains as early as tomorrow and continuing through Friday.  Although details are still questionable, widespread damaging winds will likely be the main event given such dynamic and strong winds aloft.  Additional details and updates are possible for portions of the plains states as this system evolves.

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New Blog

I have begun the process of switching over to a new blog, and soon a new website.  Okay, maybe I shouldn't say soon as there may be a good amount of time before a new website is really complete enough to show to the world. 

But, I have imported all of the posts from my previous blog, Iowa Chaser, so as to not lose any of my previous storm chases, meteorological thoughts, and general updates.  I will soon post an update on my previous blog to be sure to let everyone know and to get links transferred over, etc.

In the meantime, I hope to begin to posting more regularly on this blog and keep you updated not only with my current meteorological thoughts, but the on-goings of my life in general.  Here's to more updates!

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Been A Long Time...

I kept telling myself that it had been a long time since I had gotten an update on the blog. And I figured as we start to see the first flurries of snow fall across northwest Iowa tonight that this is as good as time as any to give a nice little, welcome snow message.

I've been very busy as of late since my last updates... Been spending lots of time with my now nearly 5-month old son, as well as my new wife (got married last weekend). And trying to find work, applying for jobs, and actually working...

I shall try to get into a better routine now that a few things, like the whole wedding, are now crossed off the list. Hope those across the northwest half of the state can enjoy their snow flurries tonight and into tomorrow morning. Look for a few more shots of snow through the weekend before a warm-up looks to return to the state.

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