Warming Up

After the chilly weekend and start to the work week, you will be happy to know that temperatures will only rise through Thursday of this week. However, upon reaching Thursday we will see another strong system work into the plains and bring thunderstorms (some severe) and other rain showers. This low pressure system will become cut-off and likely stall out over the plains states, allowing continual showers to occur. As the system finally moves east of the state for the weekend some cooler temperatures will work in, but won't last long.

Lows tonight will be near record, with freeze warnings posted for portions of the state, upper 20s and lower 30s expected with slight variations in any valleys. Highs tomorrow will be aided by the return of the southerly winds, ranging from mid 50s to mid 60s from east to west. Mid 30s to mid 40s from east to west expected on Tuesday night with moisture returning to the state. Wednesday highs continue the warmth and moisture return, mid 60s to upper 70s from northeast to west. With the warm front passing north through the state, the lows reflect the moisture return; ranging from near 50 to the mid 50s from north to south.

Thursdays' temperatures and precipitation chances will be better defined in the coming days as models continue to struggle consistency-wise. The potential does seem to be there for severe weather to occur through at least eastern NE/KS/OK. Some severe storms may be possible for western Iowa in the evening and overnight hours, that threat will also be better defined later in the week. Later updates will address these issues...

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April 25 Severe Weather Update

A line of severe thunderstorms formed early this afternoon across portions of eastern Iowa with the main threat of large hail. As the afternoon continued however, these storms entered more favorable conditions for the threat of tornadoes. Currently this line is on the Mississippi River and crossing into areas of Wisconsin and Illinois, indicating that less than an hour exists of a severe weather threat in Iowa.

Currently a storm that was previously tornado warned and heading into the Davenport area has weakened and the tornado warning was allowed to expire. Clinton county Iowa is currently under a severe thunderstorm warning, however this storm is moving out of the state as well. Previous reports from the storms include a few large hail reports including some golf ball sized hail near Delhi, IA. We currently have 3 tornado reports on the map, however none have been deemed official. The first report came out of several public reports of a possible tornado, damage occurred near the town of Floris, IA. A second and third report came from damage to a few homes, first near Atalissa, IA and then further once again 5 miles north of Atalissa.

Expect the thunderstorms to come to an end by the end of supper over the eastern portion of the state. The entire state can then brace for some cold air to drop in, with a few flurries even possible over the weekend!

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April 25 Severe Weather

Thunderstorms expand throughout much of the state, the only exception is areas of southeast and south-central Iowa where they are currently free of any showers or thunderstorms. This is likely to change though, as a severe thunderstorm watch has just been issued that covers portions of southwest and south-central Iowa and will be in effect until 7 am. The watch was issued for the potential of large hail and damaging winds as a large cluster of thunderstorms is moving east out of Kansas and Nebraska.

Expect thunderstorms to continue throughout the night across much of the state. The potential for heavy rains exist throughout the state, flood watches have been issued to blanket the state as well due to this threat. Portions of the state, especially the southern third may see a few storms capable of large hail and damaging winds. Please stay alert throughout the night as the storms move through, as even strong straight-line winds can create damage to homes and pose a threat to life.

Tornado Watch #229 has now been issued to cover portions of the severe thunderstorm watches that may pose a threat for tornadoes during the overnight hours. A strong low level jet combined with ongoing storms may produce tornadoes with the broken line of surface based supercells that are moving along the NE/KS borders. This tornado watch will include the counties of Montgomery, Fremont, and Paige counties in Iowa until 7 am.

Once storms have moved through the state during the overnight hours, they may continue throughout the day and pose a limited severe threat. However, by the afternoon hours sufficient instability may have built up to pose a large hail and damaging wind threat. This threat will mainly include eastern Iowa...

Later updates are possible during the night and tomorrow morning on any severe weather threat and forecast changes...

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April 24 Severe Weather Update #2

Several severe thunderstorm warnings were issued this evening and early tonight for storms in western and central Iowa. Even a tornado warning was issued for a short time for a storm to the east of Webster City. All of the reports thus far have been for hail between .75 and 1 inch in diameter, a wind gust of 60 mph to the north of Iowa Falls was also reported. Otherwise a mainly heavy rain and impressive lightning event across the state that doesn't look to come to an end anytime soon tonight.

Currently a line of thunderstorms from northeast Iowa into central Iowa, with a broken line of thunderstorms through west-central Iowa. A few showers and thunderstorms are also lingering in the northwestern quarter of the state at this hour. Additional storms have finally developed along the KS/NE borders as the low level jet has kicked in. These storms should continue to work northeastward and may congeal into the MCS that I've mentioned in previous posts. This MCS will likely be a early morning event for the state, the potential for damaging winds and some marginal hail may exist.

Updates may be provided later tonight if storms warrant, otherwise expect some stormy weather to continue through the night and into the day tomorrow with another round possible for the eastern half of the state during the afternoon.

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April 24 Severe Weather Update

A line of thunderstorms in northern Iowa has expanded into a broken line of thunderstorms across portions of western Iowa. Previously within the past hour a severe thunderstorm warning was issued for portions of Emmet and Kossuth county in northern Iowa for the threat of hail. A tornado was reported by an off-duty law enforcement office to the north of Bancroft, however the validity of this report is currently unknown.

Expect this line of thunderstorms to continue to move eastward during the evening hours, with the potential for a few severe thunderstorm warnings with the threat of mainly large hail. Damaging winds may also be a concern if a linear segment can form with the northern storms. The line is currently running from west of Albert Lea, MN southwestward to Pocahontas, IA and then southward through Carrol, IA. The storms are moving mainly east/northeastward and should continue to do so...

After this line of storms, potential for more thunderstorms this evening and overnight is still there. With the threat of severe weather once again with a nighttime MCS coming out of Nebraska during the early morning hours tomorrow.

Currently between classes and a meeting, more updates possible later tonight as the threat of severe weather continues across the state.

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April 24 Severe Weather

A few thunderstorms exist over the state as we enter early Thursday, these storms shouldn't capable of much more than some moderate rain and a few lightning strikes. Some gusty winds may accompany the storms in the southern third of the state, as more moisture exists in that region. These isolated storms should continue overnight and may continue into the daytime hours. Expect clearing to take place though as a warm front moves northward through the state. The southern two-thirds of the state should see temperatures in the 70s and a few 80s even dependent on the clouds. Moisture will also make a rapid return into the state, with 50s and even 60s for dew points. This combination of moisture and warmth is likely to provide the state with some instability that will be realized by thunderstorms during the evening and overnight hours.

The severe weather setup for the plains is likely to consist of a cold front, dryline, low pressure system and a trough or two. The troughs are likely to be established from tonights' convection, although already weakening. The cold front and dryline intersection is going to be a big target area for storms, this is likely to occur over portions of south-central or southwestern Nebraska and north-central/northwest Kansas in the afternoon and evening hours. Other storms may develop along the cold front through eastern Nebraska and potentially into western Iowa. That potential is dependent on clearing and the advancement of a pseudo-warm front that features the moisture to the south. Other portions of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas may also see severe weather along a dryline/trough.

SPC outlook for day 1 was just issued as well as I've completed typing the paragraph above. Their first outlook of the day is going to put the western half of Iowa under a slight risk for severe weather; while limiting a moderate risk to areas of north-central Kansas and south-central Nebraska where the cold front and dryline intersection is likely. Although Iowa is currently only featured under a slight risk, just across the border marks an area that is still under a pretty good threat of severe weather. With the potential of this system to move quicker (or slower), areas of western Iowa should still be on the lookout for the severe potential. The main threats with the severe weather will likely come during the late evening and overnight hours as a strong MCS system. Damaging winds and large hail are thus likely to be the main threats with the storms overnight on Thursday.

Additional severe weather updates may be made later during the day on Thursday...

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Stormy Forecast

Thunderstorms are expected to make their way into the state this evening and continue through the night. Thunderstorms should once again develop during the afternoon and evening on Thursday, with the potential for a few severe storms. The severe weather threat for tomorrow should be limited to the western half of the state. Portions of the state may be under a significant risk for severe weather, this may be addressed in later updates tonight. Thunderstorms should continue across the entire state overnight on Thursday with a continued risk for winds and hail with stronger storms. Dependent on the movement of the system, it looks like the eastern half of the state may have a chance at severe weather Friday afternoon as the front moving across the state once again lights up with thunderstorms. The main risks of wind and hail seem likely at this time throughout the forecast, however tomorrow afternoon may have the risk for isolated tornadoes in portions of the state and especially in areas of Kansas/Nebraska. More information on tomorrow's severe weather threat will be posted late tonight as the evening model runs come in and additional details can be known.

As for the weather besides the storms, a great day today with highs ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s! Strong southeasterly winds should continue to pull in the warm air, a warm front should lift northward and provide ample moisture for the state as well. Dew points in southwestern Iowa are in the mid 50s and higher, forecasts continue this moisture increase into the upper 50s and lower 60s. These winds also provide Iowa with high temperatures tomorrow in the 70s, potentially a few 80s if the sun can hold through the afternoon.

As the cold front pushes through the state Thursday evening, lows overnight should range from near 60 to near 40 from southeast to northwest Iowa. Friday highs from the upper 60s ahead of the front in southeast Iowa to the lower 50s in northwest Iowa. This cold front is quite strong, thus the potential for severe weather; expect lows heading into this weekend to range from the lower 40s to lower 30s! A bit of a chilly weekend ahead, so enjoy today and tomorrow before the thunderstorms and cold air work over the state.

As mentioned previously, updates tonight will address the thunderstorm risk overnight and go into detail on tomorrow's risk of severe weather for the state.

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A Few Thunderstorms

The warmer temperatures aloft, along with cloudiness during the afternoon hours was enough to hold off any thunderstorms until the past hour or so. Once the sun was able to set and allow some cooling to occur we were able to initiate some storms. Struggling at first and still fairly isolated, however a few nice showers and thunderstorms are now underway across north-central Iowa. Currently as of 10:30 PM it looks like the best area of thunder includes Franklin, Hardin, and Marshall counties. These storms should move off to the northeast at roughly 30 mph.

You can view the latest Des Moines NWS Radar image, as well as loops, from my website, Iowa Chaser

Storms should continue to develop over the next several hours across the state, with isolated thunder and lightning included. The best chance for these storms should be east of a Mason City to Omaha, NE line. The severe threat for the night is fairly limited, with the best change at anything being some pea-sized hail if a stronger storm may develop. A nice spring rain for the most part overnight, with some clouds lingering into the day tomorrow. Redevelopment of some showers and thunderstorms is going to be possible over parts of eastern Iowa tomorrow as this cold front is slow to push eastward. Highs though should still be mild, mid to upper 60s throughout the state.

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Iowa Chaser Website

My main website, www.iowachaser.com will likely be unavailable later tonight due to some server changes. Hopefully everything will go smoothly and the site will only be unavailable for a couple of hours during the overnight. I will update if any changes are made to the schedule of downtime, but currently expect the site to be unavailable from ~10 PM until Midnight. Thanks

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Thunderstorms (Slight Severe Risk)

We warm up nicely today with strong southerly winds bringing up both the temperatures and moisture. As we finally got rid of the slow system that affected the state for several days, western Iowa saw clear skies for part of the day yesterday while the rest of the state cleared out overnight. Today's highs will range from near 70 to the mid 70s throughout the state; lows tonight will only drop into the upper 40s and lower 50s as the dew points continue to rise. This rise in southerly flow is in response to a system that is going to be moving into the state late Monday afternoon. This cold front will create conditions for showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening hours tomorrow. Dependent on moisture return and the lift that the front can create, the potential may exist for a few isolated severe thunderstorms. The severe risk looks to be fairly limited, mainly a threat for large hail or damaging winds. Current SPC outlook has a portion of south-central Iowa under the slight risk, however later updates tomorrow may include a larger area of the state.

Highs tomorrow should be in the 70s throughout central and eastern Iowa; western Iowa may be under the influence of the cold front and thus mid to upper 60s for highs seem likely. Showers and thunderstorms should continue from the early evening through the overnight, affecting most of the state. Lows Monday night will have a wide range, from the upper 50s in southeastern Iowa to lows near 40 in extreme northwest Iowa. Showers and thunderstorms may continue for eastern Iowa for Tuesday as the front is slow to move out; highs in the 60s throughout the state.

After this system moves out temperatures should still remain mild with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s for the most part. Another system will likely move into the state on Thursday with the potential for more showers and thunderstorms.

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