Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Two Upcoming Storm Systems...

The forecast remains dry for Tuesday and Wednesday, but a low pressure system coming off of the Gulf of Mexico will bring precipitation chances to much of the central Plains by Thursday and Friday. The low pressure system will come onshore and remain along the Gulf Coast through the end of the week, however, an elongated trowel region will bring precipitation well northwest of the lows' center along the Gulf Coast. Precipitation should begin across areas of central and southern Kansas by Thursday afternoon, likely in the form of rain. By Thursday evening the precipitation should continue to move northeast and enter areas of eastern Kansas and western Missouri overnight, with some areas seeing rain and others potentially a rain/snow mix through Friday morning. As the precipitation continues to move northeast, at least some cold air will likely push southward into KS/MO to aid in a change-over to snow as the main precip type. Dependent upon the precipitation intensity, this change-over may be able to occur sooner on Friday morning if intensities are at least moderate. Total snowfall amounts are hard to pinpoint at this time, not only with many questions regarding the extent of the trowal region, but also to when will we have the change-over to snow. Regardless, precipitation will be able to filter through much of Missouri through the day on Friday and leaving the state under sprinkles/flurries by Saturday afternoon. Areas further north, including Nebraska and Iowa, may also be able to see some precipitation from this system. The best chances will be over the southern regions of these states, where at least a few inches of snow are likely to fall by end of the week.

Total snow accumulations further south over areas of Kansas and Missouri are still in question, but would not be surprised to see some areas with 3-6 inches by the end of the week if some model indications are correct. Details regarding this system and its' snowfall potential will be assessed in a later update...

Beyond this system for Thursday/Friday, we are looking at a cold front to work its' way through the central Plains on Sunday/Monday. This will also bring snow potential for the entire central Plains region and behind its' passing will also be more cold air to deal with. Some flurries may remain possible on Saturday behind the first system, and increasing in intensity through the day on Sunday and into Sunday night. This system may not last long, but its' intensity with the push of cold air will quickly rid the atmosphere of moisture and likely allow for a 'quick' 1-3 inches across the area with locally higher amounts. More details on this system will be forthcoming over the weekend as our first system passes by...

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