I spent the day on Monday attempting to forecast the cut-off low pressure system that rolled through Kansas and Missouri, bringing thunderstorms, moderate to heavy rainfall, and some fairly heavy snows to areas along the borders of KS/NE/MO. This was one very difficult system, with varying temperatures throughout the precipitation bands creating mixes of rain/snow, heavy snow, sleet and just rain. Parts of northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska saw as much as 7 inches of snow fall within very short periods of time due to heavy bands of precipitation that were able to rapidly cool the air through evaporative cooling; thus creating conditions prime for a quick heavy snow. Other areas, such as the Kansas City metro were able to dodge the initial rounds of precipitation and keep mainly rain falling. Through Monday night however, additional bands created enough cooling to indeed drop a dusting to an inch of snow through the metro area and several inches across additional areas of northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. This cut-off low meandered over the central plains for a few more days, creating cloudy and wet conditions for areas of MO/IA/IL and more surrounding states. Finally the low pressure system was engulfing enough dry air that it began to weaken and has since been picked up by mid-level flow and taken away from the plains.
A shortwave trough is making its' way across the southern plains today, and will bring the threat of thunderstorms and heavy rains to parts of Texas and the Gulf border states over the weekend. And another trough will work into the plains bringing a passing cold front by Monday, followed by a few additional waves of energy that may likely create a low pressure system on the eastern plains. This may once again bring a mix of rain and snow for areas of northern Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois; along with a rain/snow mix and perhaps accumulating snow for parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin for early next week. Beyond this system some portions of the plains may see some very chilly temperatures for mid-week next week as a trough settles into the northern plains and transverses over the northeast by late next week.
Looking out into the guessing land of the models, we look to be flirting with the potential for a large trough for the first week of December which would bring some cold air and perhaps wintery precipitation to the northern and central plains. Something to keep an eye on for the start of December...
A shortwave trough is making its' way across the southern plains today, and will bring the threat of thunderstorms and heavy rains to parts of Texas and the Gulf border states over the weekend. And another trough will work into the plains bringing a passing cold front by Monday, followed by a few additional waves of energy that may likely create a low pressure system on the eastern plains. This may once again bring a mix of rain and snow for areas of northern Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois; along with a rain/snow mix and perhaps accumulating snow for parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin for early next week. Beyond this system some portions of the plains may see some very chilly temperatures for mid-week next week as a trough settles into the northern plains and transverses over the northeast by late next week.
Looking out into the guessing land of the models, we look to be flirting with the potential for a large trough for the first week of December which would bring some cold air and perhaps wintery precipitation to the northern and central plains. Something to keep an eye on for the start of December...
I have better news than the weather though, this past week in Kansas City while I was down for a job interview I was offered and accepted a job in the Kansas City metro area. Thus, will be relocating to the area sometime late December! This will make for a busy few weeks as my family not only are in the process of finding a place to live, but the wife and I are going on our cruise from Nov. 30 - Dec. 5 and thus will even be out of the country!
