Monday, February 9, 2009

Severe Weather: Feb. 9 Update #1

The severe weather risks for the state of Iowa, and for the entire central plains for that matter, have been dwindling throughout the morning hours. The SPC risk has remained at slight, although the tornado risk and large hail risk were both scaled back in the Noon outlook. Latest radar shows the band of showers wrapping around the low pressure system across northern and eastern Iowa; while a strong dry slot has been working into southwest Iowa bringing in clear skies and surface warming. Further into Kansas this dry slot has mixed down drier air which will diminish the severe weather risk. However, if timing can be nailed down the clear skies will provide instability for parts of southern and western Iowa while the dry air does not have time to mix down. Still a complex situation, but the severe weather risk does seem lower than what was anticipated this morning.

An update is likely near 4 PM...