Monday, October 6, 2008

Lots o' Rain!

A low pressure system that is currently near the Kansas/Nebraska border will move northeast and strengthen throughout the nighttime hours. As the low moves through western Iowa during the overnight, and then north of the state in the early morning hours it will pull a cold front through. This cold front combined with the low pressure system will provide the state with a very good chance of rainfall, including some fairly significant amounts. A view of the current radar can be found on the Iowa Chaser homepage. Expect to see the western and central thirds of the state to be full of precipitation through the nighttime hours tonight. The rain will begin to push eastward as the cold front moves through, indicating that by sunrise the precipitation will be over mainly the central and eastern thirds of the state. Mid-afternoon and into the early overnight hours should leave only the eastern third of the state with rain chances.

Although total rainfall amounts have previously been forecasted to be between a half inch to well over an inch, latest satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure system is pulling in some fairly significant dry air. This dry air will act to limit some of the precipitation amounts that may be seen overnight tonight. Despite this dry air, total precip amounts should still be near a half inch. As of 8 PM, some rainfall totals are already near a half-inch. Creston, IA already has 0.60"; Red Oak has 0.44"; Council Bluffs has 0.43"; Carroll and Sioux City both have 0.19"; and Des Moines has accumulated 0.13".

Lows overnight tonight should range from the upper 50s to near 50 from southeast to northwest. Highs tomorrow will only reach the mid to upper 60s across the state, as mostly cloudy skies and strong winds remain over most of the state through the afternoon. Tuesday night lows will show the brunt of the cold air, as clear skies occur over the western two-thirds of the state and calmer winds ensue. The range of temperatures will be from the low 50s in the eastern third with cloudy skies and scattered showers, to the upper 30s over northwest Iowa where those clear skies are in place.

Beyond this storm system, we'll see clear to partly cloudy skies and fairly quiet weather through Friday. Wednesday highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s from east to north, although southwest Iowa will have the mid 70s in place. Thursday highs will be a bit cooler, mid to upper 60s from roughly north to south across the state. Friday afternoon will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s from north to south before the next rainfall chances approach. Wednesday night lows ranging from near 40 to near 50 from northwest to southeast. Thursday night lows in the mid to upper 40s across the entire state; and Friday night will be in the lower to mid 50s across the entire state as some warm air returns ahead of the next storm chances.

The next storm system on Friday evening and into the weekend will be discussed in the midweek update, while the update tomorrow will likely feature the storm total rainfalls from the current system.

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