Friday, September 29, 2006

Surprise Severe Weather

Alright, I can call it severe weather beings there were warnings issued on it at least. A ‘decent’ storm came into the area within the last half hour, bringing fairly gusty winds and some decent rainfall. This storm came from the northeast, first forming near the IA/MN border to the north of Spencer, IA. It moved off to the southeast, first going severe when it reached the Fort Dodge area. Local storm report indicated that a large tree had been blown over the road near highway 169 to the west. This prompted the warnings as DMX indicated that the storm might be capable of severe winds in excess of 60 mph. Actual wind measurements indicate Fort Dodge airport with a 38 mph gust, Nevada with a 37 mph gust and Ames Airport with a 35 mph wind gust. This storm was quite quick moving, therefore even with decent rainfall rates, only a couple hundreths to near a tenth of an inch is expected with the storm. This storm has since weakend and all of the warnings have been cancelled for it.

In the end, a nice storm to see with lightning and decent thunder. Keeps the hopes up for a fall chase!!

Thursday, September 28, 2006

Slight Feel of Summer!

Although the last couple of days have been filled with some clouds, a few sprinkles and some chilly winds. That looks like it could come to an end by this weekend and be replaced with a feel of nearly summer like conditions over the state. Today saw temperatures only rise into the lower 60s at best across the state, with many areas only in the upper 50s. This combined with a wind of 10-15 mph didn’t help conditions, thus the fall feel definitely in place. Lows tonight will take the fall like appeal as well, with them hovering around 40 degrees. Tomorrow’s highs won’t quite be there yet in the east, with them remaining around 60 degrees. However in the west the warmup has begun, with highs tomorrow nearing the 70 degree mark.

The return of warmth will begin by Saturday, first off Friday night lows will range in the 40s to near 50 in many areas. Highs by Saturday for the two football games should be near 65 in Iowa City, to upper 60s in Ames for the ISU/UNI game. Saturday night lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s, ranging from east to west respectively. Sunday it finally feels like a ‘weak’ summer day, with sunshine abundant and highs ranging from lower 80s in the southwest to lower 70s in the northeast. To begin the workweek on Monday, may possibly be the end of this feel, but temperature will range from the mid 80s to upper 70s in Iowa. By Monday night a system begins to work in and will make its’ way across Iowa through the day on Tuesday as well. This will keep the temperatures down as well as providing a shot at some showers and thunderstorms over the state. Once this system moves through, mid-week temperatures currently look to be in the lower 70s and upper 60s, with lows in the upper 40s to around 50. Long range forecasts do hint at a potential warmup by the second week of October with an upper level pattern change. Enjoy the weekend, as it looks to be a great one across the state!

Tuesday, September 26, 2006

The beginning of Fall!

Well, Fall officially began and although this weekend was somewhat chilly we have returned to some very nice weather that is currently over the state. However, a system moving tonight and tomorrow will likely put an end to that. This won’t be a very in depth post due to time constraints that I have, but a quick look at the forecast for the rest of the work week.

Tonight through tomorrow will see a system moving into the state and showers, possibly a thunderstorm, will be possible across the state. This will keep temperatures down a good 10 degrees for most areas compared to today. These showers will continue tomorrow night and into Thursday for some arears of eastern Iowa. Otherwise behind this system, temperatures will be very fall like and potentially chilly with highs only in the 50s for highs. Those temperatures will slowly rise on Friday, into the 60s most likely across the state. With another weak system moving across on Friday as well, potentially a shower or two may be in the area as well. Hopefully another update this week for a weekend forecast and a look ahead to next week!

Friday, September 22, 2006

Chase Day (for some)

Well today looks like a potentially dangerous day for areas of MO/AR and IL, with the threat of tornadoes and damaging winds. Strong low pressure system will pull a warm front northward over MO/IL, combined with strong shear values given jet streaks and the potential for severe weather is quite high. Clearing should occur in this area as a dry slot moves in around the low pressure system that should be moving across areas of IA/MN today.

Plans were made for a potential chase, but right now this doesn’t look like it is going to happen. Given that we could make it to a target area by 4 pm easily into MO and be setup for a chase. That is just not plausible for others given the terrain, so it looks like a no go. I will update if anything changes, but for now I’ll leave you with a target area of Huntsville, MO.

Thursday, September 21, 2006

Rain Today, Chase Tomorrow?

Well today as promised has been quite wet for most of the western and central portions of the state. Rain has been off and on throughout the day in Ames, most of the time being only light. But, over other portions of the state the rain has fell consistantly and heavy at times. Highest amounts so far today seem to come out of northwest Iowa actually, with 1.55″ in Orange City, IA. Other near 1″ totals in Le Mars, Cherokee, Denison, etc… Much of that rain seems to be falling now by looks of the radar, other bands of rain are making their way across central Iowa. This can be expected to continue this evening and into tonight across the state.

Forecasts have the rain moving out of southwest portions of the state by sunrise and moving out of much of Iowa by Noon. This is expected as a dry slot may move into the area allowing for plentiful sunshine and warm tempertures into the 70s. With this along with such a strong low that is forecasted to move over the area, severe weather does seem plausible. Currently, the SPC has issued a MODERATE risk for areas of southeast Iowa, while nearly the rest of the state remains in a slight risk. This will likely change in the new day 1 outlooks issued early tomorrow and throughout the day, but nonetheless it is going to have to be monitored closely for the chase potential that it has. I’ll likely issue a new update early tomorrow sometime on the possibilities of severe weather.

Monday, September 18, 2006

Chilly Forecast!

Well before I get into the chilly forecast, this weekend did hold some severe weather over the plains states. Including tornado reports in SD/NE and MN, I did not chase this weekend however so I do not have any reports to inform you of.

Now, as for this chilly forecast. Sunday didn’t seem to chilly as long as you were out of the chilly north wind that was in place across much of the state. Highs ranged from near 80 in the southeast to only the upper 60s in the northwest portion of the state. Today, the temperatures are ranging from only 70 degrees in the southeast to only the mid 50’s in the northwest! This all comes with a chilly wind from the west as well, averaging 15-20 kts across the state. This temperature range should become smaller as cold air moves over the entire state until after midweek. Lows tonight should be in the upper 30s to mid 40s from northwest to southeast respectively. Highs tomorrow should be fairly uniform, anywhere from the mid 50s to around 60 over the state. Lows Tuesday night could be nearing record lows in the northern portions of the state, where frost looks like a good possibility. Lows in those areas should be in the lower 30s, while the rest of the state still will feature mid or upper 30s, frost is not as likely in those areas. The warmup should begin on Wednesday, as temperatures finally near the 70 mark in the southwest while only lower 60s remain in the northeast. Lows will also not be nearly as low, with near 40 marks in the northeast and lower 50s in the southwest portion of the state.

For the rest of the week, highs in the 60s across much of the state and lows in the 40s and a few lower 50 marks as well. But, the next storm system also looks to make its’ way across the state on Thursday/Friday and possibly may linger into the weekend. This system looks to bring the risk of not only showers, but thunderstorms are also possible given some of the parameters. Severe weather looks unlikely at the moment, mainly due to the lack on instability with temperatures not even at the 70 degree mark. More updates by mid week on this event…

Thursday, September 14, 2006

Saturday Severe Weather

Well as mentioned in previous posts, this weekend holds the potential for a decent severe weather episode across the plain states. SPC has issued their day 3 outlook for Saturday, it was actually issued early this morning. Nonetheless, they have put in a 30% probability for much of western Iowa as well as portions of surrounding states, including SD/MN/NE/KS/MO. This potential will likely increase as the event nears and models have time to come to a complete solution. The threats with this system are likely to be large hail and especially damaging wind given a strong cold front/dryline that will be surging to the east during the night on Saturday. But, there will be potential for isolated tornadoes with storms that fire away from the front or ones that move away from the front during the afternoon/evening hours. Storms will be likely to move ahead of the front, given that storm motions are forecasted to be 35-45 kts! This will be due to such strong mid and upper level winds, this also is what is responsible for the good shear values as well. Although directionally not strong, speed wise they should be quite good, with some models hinting at values well above 50 kts worth of deep layer shear.

So, a strong system with a potent cold front/dryline combination should allow for plenty of lift. With a strong low pressure system forecasted, this should help with directional shear values in localized locations. Decent heating will be in place, but moisture is currently a minor concern with the amount of return not known. Indications do show that at least low to mid 60 degree dewpoints should be obtainable, thus only a minor concern for this at the moment. Model consistancy has been fairly good as of late, at least with the GFS and other ensemble models. The outlier at the moment is of course the NAM/WRF which has been very fast with the cold front, but in tonights run it has considerably slowed the forward progress of it. Although it is still fast, likely by tomorrow morning and by the 00z on Saturday (Friday Night’s run) it will likely be back in line with decent agreement with other models. It seems to be the trend of the NAM/WRF in situations like this. For now still just watching, not sure on the chase possibilities right now, especially with exact threats still unknown. I’ll already be in place in northwest Iowa, so likely will simply play whatever comes my way unless we are looking at a big outbreak, which to me seems unlikely at the moment. That is all I have for now, hopefully I will get another update in either late tomorrow night or early Saturday on what the final plan will be.

Tuesday, September 12, 2006

Rest of Week to be Nice!

Despite the rainy, cloudy and fairly chilly weekend and first two days of the week, things look to change for the rest of the week. Today, temperatures ranged from the lower 70s in western Iowa to a downright chilly high of only upper 50s in eastern Iowa where cloudcover was much more abundant. Highest temperature of the day was reported in Clarinda, where it rose up to 77 degrees. Where the lowest high of the day was reported in Monticello, where it only reached up to 57 degrees. The forecast for the rest of the week is much better, and drier, with no rain in the forecast until late Friday in extreme western Iowa…

Tomorrow’s highs should be near 70 in the eastern edge of Iowa to near 80 along the western edge. With tomorrow nights’ lows ranging from the mid 40s in eastern Iowa to the mid 50s in western Iowa. This pattern of highest in the west and lower in the east will remain on Thursday, where highs will range from the mid 70s to possibly the mid 80s. Lows for Thursday night in the same 10 degree range of mid 50s to mid 60s over the state. Fridays’ highs should be in the lower 80s throughout the entire state with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the state from east to west respectively. By Friday night some rainfall may possibly move in dependent on the speed of the next system coming through, this system may be hazardous as severe weather is being forecasted, with the talk of potentially significant outbreak of severe weather as well. The severe threat should be over SD/NE/KS on Saturday with the threat moving over the Mississippi valley by Sunday.. Thus, likely rainfall will come from Saturday through Sunday night across the state, with some lingering showers on Monday in the east… Temperatures over the weekend are forecasted to be in the lower 80s on Saturday, with only mid 70s in the west on Sunday to near 80 in the east.

So, much nicer week in store for the latter half and into the weekend with the potential for thunderstorms including severe thunderstorms by the weekend. Next update will probably come tomorrow or on Thursday with an update on the severe weather potential for the weekend.

Sunday, September 10, 2006

ISU/UNLV Recap - Plenty of Rain

Well the game last night was quite the dandy, where once again the Iowa State crowd was foreced to wait until the final play of the game before knowing who would win. Fortunately, this time it at least happened within regulation, but not without controversy. ISU looked decent through the first half and the beginning of the second, holding up a 16-3 lead going into the 4th quarter. But, once again UNLV like Toledo during the first week came back, this time the score 16-10 into the final minutes. Iowa State’s offense struggled late, which helped UNLV gain control of the ball with time running out. With under 10 seconds left, a pass by UNLV was caught near the 5 and then fumbled, but quickly recovered back by the UNLV receiver. This play was challenged upstairs, once challenged it was then ruled that it was an incomplete pass and left them around the 10 yard line with 7 seconds remaining. So last play of the game, quarterback scrambles to the right half of the field and fires into the corner in which it was caught by a UNLV receiver. But, as it was caught in mid-air the ISU corner shoved him out of bounds along with his momentum making his feet land well out of bounds. At the time and by the view of many, including the UNLV team as well as much of the crowd thought this was quite close. But, ruled out of bounds the game was over, officials quickly left the field as the ISU team rushed onto the field in celebration. UNLV was not happy with this though, thinking that the play should have been reviewed and stayed on field for nearly 20 minutes in protest, demanding the referee’s back onto the field to review the play. As the story goes, the review official upstairs did look over the play, with the receiver landing well out of bounds he made the decision that it did not need to have an ‘officials’ review. Therefore the final stood, 16-10, ISU wins another close one. Time to get geared up for the Iowa Hawkeyes, a game that ISU will have to play better than what they have, but if history has shown, Iowa State usually seems to play only to the opponents potential. Leaving me hope that the team will get its’ act together and give Iowa a tough fight in Kinnick.

As for the weather, just as expected the rain held off for the most part until late last night and early this morning. Only a few sprinkles and occasional ‘mistings’ of rain during the game. The rain continued throughout the day today and has continued into this overnight, leaving Ames with nearly an inch and a half of rainfall with a possible half inch left to come overnight and into tomorrow. By Tuesday the rain should stop, but a chillier day on store Tuesday with temperatures raning from the mid 60s to lower 70s across the state. Wednesday through Friday the weekend looks to remain fairly dry and temperatures mild. Ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s throughout the period, highest temperatures coming on Friday before a slight weekend cool down. Lows during this period look vary from the mid-40s to near 50 on Tuesday night, rising into the lower 50s on Wednesday night, and then finally up to the mid to upper 50s for the remaining weeknights and into the weekend.

Friday, September 8, 2006

Iowa State vs UNLV GameDay Forecast & Game Notes

In what will be a ritual for the rest of the football season, here is my ‘official’ forecast for the Iowa State vs UNLV football game that is set to kick off just after 6 PM tomorrow night! But first, the Game Notes:

Iowa State (1-0) comes off of a tough earned win against Toledo last Thursday. In what many fans know, the defense allowed nearly 400 yards of passing offense as they simply could not stop them from reaching the endzone. But, ISU gained the win by finally opening up the offense, Meyer to Blythe was the key. Two huge pass/catch combinations between them was what got it won. UNLV (1-0) is coming off of a routing of Idaho State, in which the final score was 54-10. The lack of defense from Idaho State allowed UNLV to open up the run game, something that they normally wouldn’t do. Having 4 rushing touchdowns with 3 different rushers, while only having 1 passing touchdown during the game. This could be different in the Iowa State game, where the rushing defense could be decent, but the pass defense is put to the test as UNLVs’ base offense set is a shotgun spread. Current spread: ISU by 13.5

Forecast: Most of the day should remain cloudy, with only slight peaks at the sun at most throughout the day. This will only allow temperatures to rise up to the 70 degree mark, with a kickoff temperature of 68. With those clouds may come the increasing threat of rain, early forecasts during the mid-week period had chances of rain around 50/50, but latest forecasts have this chance down to 40%. A warm front is expected to remain south of Ames for most of the day, near the IA/MO border keeping most of the best chances south. But, another weather system coming in from the west will be the key factor in moving precip into the area. Latest forecast models have indicated that this system is slowing and thus may hold off reaching the area until Saturday night or later… But, stray showers cannot be ruled out with strong cloudcover, but for now heavy rains do not seem likely. As for the wind, ENE during the day at 5-15 mph switching off to mainly east by game time at just slightly slower speeds. So for the summary… Kickoff: 68 with Cloudy skies, occasional showers possible (especially late game), temperatures falling to the lower 60s by game end. Winds E - ENE at 5-12 mph.

Wednesday, September 6, 2006

Stunning September!

A great day today across the state, with highs ranging from the upper 70s in northwest Iowa to the mid-80s in southeast Iowa with 86 degrees coming out of Keokuk! This occurred with clear skies throughout the day and relatively light winds, which allowed full heating throughout the state. You can expect much of the same tomorrow, with temperature slightly increasing tomorrow. But, with the clear skies over the next 48 hours, will also allow low temperatures to drop as much as they can. Likely into the lower to mid 50s across the state tonight, maybe even an upper 40 mark in northwest Iowa, lower to upper 50s for tomorrow night as well seem likely.

The first disturbance that comes into view will do so on Friday, although only western Iowa should see the thunderstorm chance Friday afternoon. The rest of the state should expect thunderstorms to possible move in on Friday night or early Saturday morning. This system should continue to produce thunderstorms over the state on Saturday afternoon/night over much of the state, especially central Iowa. With another weak wave expected on Sunday, expect more of a shower threat with that system, nonetheless cloudy and rainy could be a possibility.