Severe Weather - Apr. 5

A recap of any severe weather will likely be posted once this system has exited the Plains entirely, as a round of severe/tornadic thunderstorms occurred yesterday afternoon/evening and additional rounds of thunderstorms are occurring this morning with more expected this afternoon.

Currently, elevated thunderstorms capable of producing large hail have been ongoing across parts of northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri, especially near the Kansas City Metro area.  A severe thunderstorm watch was issued for portions of the states through Noon today.  These storms are being fed by a strong southerly low level jet that continues to push moisture northward and will begin to push a warm front to the north today, likely situating near the Iowa/Missouri border this afternoon. In addition to the warm front, a dryline will be situated across central Kanas southward into Oklahoma which may be another focus for thunderstorm development.  Thunderstorm development along both frontal boundaries is somewhat in question due to a substantial capping inversion and elevated mixed-layer that will overspread the Plains states. 

Despite this, thunderstorm development should occur along the warm front this evening (7-9pm).  Given moderate instability and sufficient deep layer shear, supercells will be likely capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.  Storms should move along the warm front, continuing to be capable of all modes of severe weather through the evening and into the early overnight.  Additional storms will continue along the warm front into Illinois and other portions of the Midwest during the overnight hours continuing the severe weather threat of mainly damaging winds and large hail, although a tornado or two is still likely with any storms that continue along the warm front.

Development along the dryline across central Kansas into Oklahoma is very conditional given the substantial elevated mixed-layer and associated temperature inversion in the lower levels.  Strong instability should be present along/just ahead of the dryline this afternoon, however without continued convergence along the boundary there may not be sufficient lift for development of thunderstorms.  If an area of enhanced convergence can occur along the dryline and thunderstorm development can occur, there is no doubt that supercell(s) would be likely.  Once again all modes of severe weather will be likely with strong deep layer shear resulting in the potential for very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

Essentially a conditional, but very volatile severe weather setup today across parts of central Kansas, extreme southeast Nebraska, extreme southern Iowa and extreme northern Missouri.  The potential is there for a very strong supercell capable of significant hail, winds, and tornadoes.  I'm sure there will be plenty of storm chasers out to keep track of the situation live.  I once again am working the evening shift, thus will not be chasing this event (I keep telling myself it is only early April, plenty more opportunities).