Severe Weather Potential - Apr. 6

A low pressure system is currently located over southeast Nebraska, and will slowly move into southern Iowa and eventually into northern Illinois during the overnight hours. A warm front is positioned to the east of the low, draped across southern Iowa, northern Illinois and further to the east. A cold front/dryline is to the south of the low, currently across eastern Kansas, central Oklahoma and into north-central Texas.  These frontal boundaries will be the focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening given sufficient lifting and support from an upper level wave that should cross the Central Plains this afternoon.  Additional storms in the warm sector or away from the front are not expected due to the substantial mixed layer that should provided sufficient capping.  Given dew points into the upper 50s and lower 60s throughout the warm sector, with clearing skies allowing for moderate to strong destabilization along the fronts.  Deep layer shear is more than sufficient for supercells during initial development, however with time a largely unidirectional wind field will eventually support more of a linear storm mode.

Thunderstorm development should occur this afternoon both along the warm front in Iowa, and along the cold front in northwest Missouri and eastern Kansas.  Storms should continue to develop further south during the late afternoon and evening in eastern Kansas and into portions of Oklahoma along the dryline.  With initial surface based development, isolated nature of storms should support very large hail and perhaps a tornado.  The best tornado threat would appear to be along any portion of the warm front that can back winds to the southeast, otherwise given largely south/southwesterly flow at the surface the tornado threat should be minimal along the cold front.  As we progress into the evening, clusters or broken lines of thunderstorms are expected with more of a threat of large hail and perhaps gusty winds.  As we enter the overnight hours the instability should begin to wane, and given substantial capping otherwise it would appear more likely for storms to also wane after Midnight with a limited risk of any severe weather.

Kansas City should expect thunderstorms during the mid to late afternoon, with a risk of some large hail with any strong/severe thunderstorms. These thunderstorms should exit with the passing of the cold front later this evening...