Severe Weather Potential - Apr. 4/5/6

The first post in regards to severe weather potential for Sunday through Tuesday next week will encompass the entire event, subsequent posts will likely be broken into daily forecasts.  Unfortunately this will be another virtual chase target event as later today I begin my 7 day stretch of work. 

April 4 - Nonetheless another severe weather setup will take place as a trough enters the Plains states aiding in additional return moisture and co-located warm front moving northward.  This warm front will likely be positioned across parts of central/northern Kansas and into northern Missouri by tomorrow evening.  General upward trajectories of parcels would be sufficient for thunderstorm development, however increasing heights associated with the strengthening trough to the west will likely inhibit storm development during the afternoon hours.  An increase in low level flow associated with the nocturnal low level jet will likely provide additional lift and be enough to develop elevated thunderstorms during the early overnight Sunday. These thunderstorms will likely become widespread over northern Missouri during the overnight and move northeastward with time. Although the severe weather threat would appear low due to the elevated nature of convection, marginally severe hail and damaging winds may be a threat into the morning hours on Monday across parts of northern Missouri and perhaps adjacent areas of Iowa and Illinois.

April 5 - Ongoing morning convection over parts of eastern Missouri/Iowa and into Illinois will exit eastward, with a quickly recovering warm sector pushing the warm front further to the north.  Exact positioning of the warm front will be dependent upon any mesoscale cold pools and cloud cover, but a general positioning expected along northern Kansas/southern Nebraska and into southern Iowa by the late afternoon hours Monday.  Large scale trough will make progress onto the High Plains, with associated low pressure system developing over western Kansas/Nebraska.  A dryline will develop in association with the strengthening surface low, yielding largely southeast surface flow along the warm front and triple point areas.  This in conjunction with largely veering winds with height and an increase in speed should yield impressive hodographs throughout the warm sector.  Add sufficient daytime heating and moisture return with dew points of 60+, instability values should be moderate to strong leading to an impressive severe weather setup.  While limited inhibition is expected to the east along the warm front in parts of eastern Iowa/Missouri, sufficient capping should ensure over Nebraska/Kansas allowing for strong destabilization. Thus expect rapid development of thunderstorms during the evening hours both along the warm front and perhaps along the dryline, being isolated in nature will likely allow the potential for very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.  Additional updates in regards to positioning of surface features will be likely, but an initial virtual target is expected along Highway 36 between Smith Center and Marysville in extreme northern Kansas.

April 6 - Large scale trough will continue its' movement across the Plains, with surface low pressure system moving across Iowa during the day Tuesday.  Associated warm front will likely have ongoing thunderstorms and see continuing development along the front throughout much of the day.  Cold front should sweep across eastern Nebraska/Kansas and into Iowa/Missouri during the early afternoon.  Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the cold front in the afternoon with limited inhibition.  Largely linear forcing will be in place with the cold front, thus expect line segments and/or broken line of thunderstorms to develop over mainly portions of Iowa/Missouri in the afternoon.  At this time it would appear that any severe weather threat would be limited to damaging winds and/or marginally severe hail associated with any convective line that does develop over parts of southern Iowa and northern Missouri.