A Round of Rain...

Several days of warm and sunny weather has most people spoiled into thinking summer is almost here already!  But, don't think winter has gone too far as there is plenty of winter weather still ongoing in some areas of the Rockies, including Montana and Wyoming where up to a foot of snow was falling yesterday on the backside of a strong dynamic upper level system that was also responsible for strong and even severe thunderstorms in the western Dakotas, western Nebraska and along the Colorado/Kansas border.  This upper level system was also the culprit to some severe thunderstorms on Monday across northern Iowa and southern Minnesota.  The upper level low will be pushed eastward over the next couple of days, allowing a cold front to push southward through the Plains states on Thursday and Friday.  With the meager moisture in place and the lack of dynamics aloft, any thunderstorms along the cold front should be general thunderstorms with perhaps a few marginal severe hail reports.

Today's showers and thunderstorm chances along the front extend from northern Minnesota/Wisconsin southwestward through Iowa, Nebraska and into western Kansas.  Showers and thunderstorms will move into southern Wisconsin and continue through Iowa/Nebraska and Kansas on Thursday as the cold front beings its' push south.  Finally we'll see the showers and thunderstorms make their way into the Midwest and areas of Missouri through the day on Friday.  Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected along western Oklahoma and Texas both today and tomorrow as a weak dryline will continue to focus for some additional development.  Some cooler continental air will follow the front, with high temperatures being knocked back down into the 60s here in Kansas City and more seasonable temperatures for most of the Plains.

For the long range we'll see a brief ridge build into the central US, that will continue into early next week.  Long range models have made a fairly drastic change in the past few runs compared to what was earlier depicted as a fairly quiet weather pattern now indicates that a strong storm system may move through the Plains states for mid-to-late week next week.  While this system may have the strong dynamics, there will likely be a question of how much moisture is in place even by then thanks to the ridge that will also affect the Gulf and its' attempt to return moisture to the Plains.  Of course this potential system is quite a ways out and there won't be much more thoughts on this until it nears a bit closer.