Severe Weather Potential - Apr. 1/2

Just a quick update for the potential of severe weather both today and tomorrow for the Plains states.  Today's threat is quite marginal given a stout temperature inversion in the lower levels ~800hPa, but given moderate surface based instability and marginal shear values any storms that could develop would likely be isolated and severe in nature. The initiation for any thunderstorms will come along a dryline situated from extreme south-central Nebraska through central Kansas/Oklahoma and into Texas.  This dryline intersects a cold front in south-central Nebraska and will also be retreating to the west by this evening. Marginal convergence along the dryline may initiate storms just above the temperature inversion, likely after sunset this evening. Although there is a small chance of surface based convection developing, mainly where instability is greater and convective temperatures can be met across south-central Kansas and central Oklahoma. Main threats with thunderstorms this evening/overnight would be large hail and gusty winds, on the small chance that a surface based thunderstorm can occur there would be an isolated tornado threat given moderate low level shear.

Tomorrows potential will be much greater for convection and the potential for severe thunderstorms given the decrease in low-level temperatures which will rid any inversions. A strong trough entering the Plains will lead to significant height falls and with both a cold front and dryline to aid in initiation.  Widespread precipitation is expected from the Northern Plains along the cold front, and further south into areas of Kansas/Missouri during the afternoon hours.  Other convection may linger during the morning hours even further south, but should be displaced from the dryline/cold front and allow for some heating to occur during the afternoon. Any heating that can occur during the afternoon will lead to increase probabilities of severe weather along the frontal boundaries with the best threat of redevelopment and severe weather coming along the dryline in eastern Oklahoma into northeast Texas.  These areas will have marginal shear, but given moderate instability will likely allow any thunderstorms to be severe in nature, with the threats of large hail and damaging winds, along with a tornado or two given strong vorticity (and stretching of the rotating column).  The potential for a few storms capable of damaging winds and large hail will extend northward into parts of eastern Kansas as well, but is highly dependent upon the amount of instability that can be managed with any clearing.  I may not have an additional update tonight/tomorrow, thus the inclusion of both days in this post. Chasing prospects do not warrant any chase given marginal parameters and distance for a good chase target.