First of Many Chances...

Scattered showers and even a thunderstorms every once in a while have continued over parts of Central Nebraska through much of the day in response to a shortwave that is slowly progressing southeast. These showers should continue to move southeast through the overnight, reaching the Kansas and Missouri borders during the early morning hours. Fairly dry conditions in the lower levels along with an increasingly unfavorable conditions for the shortwave should limit the potential for any widespread rain across much of Kansas/Missouri. However, recent models trends have stuck to a more localized area of 'energy' which may lead to an area of showers that could persist through much of the day tomorrow as it progresses across parts of Missouri. Even with this scenario, do not expect any significant rainfall and the day certainly does not look like a wash-out.

That wave is the first of many that will likely move through the Central Plains for this week, with an impressive trough and numerous shortwaves yielding plenty of rainfall and severe weather potential for Thursday through Saturday. Latest model trends continue to push back the timing of the event, leading to a more southerly positioning of the warm front and a more westerly positioning of the dryline. While this isn't that unexpected it was kind of a surprise as to the magnitude of the 'jump' south and west in a run-to-run basis.

Thursday in my mind continues to be the more favorable for photogenic tornadoes in my opinion. Surface based instability should be nearing 2000 J/kg over extreme southwest Kansas and the panhandles of Oklahoma/Texas; 75/60 surface parcels should yield low LCL's and sufficient moisture given higher elevations; and a favorable location along a jet maxima should yield sufficient upper level support. All of the aforementioned in conjunction with largely southeast flow at the surface should allow for supercells with 15-25kt storm motion capable of producing tornadoes.

Friday still holds the potential for tornadic supercells, and more than likely the more widespread severe weather event given a more pronounced warm front and dryline. Bulk shear values are more sufficient on Friday throughout the warm sector, however with slightly more unidirectional flow. Nonetheless, expect widespread severe weather along the dryline from central Kansas into north-central Texas with the potential for additional thunderstorms along the warm front given strong surface convergence.

More details regarding both Thursday and Friday, along with some potential on Saturday will be discussed in later updates...