Severe Weather Potential - May 31

It would appear that surface features and upper air parameters will come into play for tomorrow and allow one of the better risks of severe weather across the plains in nearly two weeks! While surface moisture will still be fairly meager across the northern plains with surface dew points only in the 50s, upper air dynamics will be fairly strong and hopefully be able to overcome the lack of moisture. A shortwave will likely move across the new, more westerly, flow at 500hPa and combine with favorable low level flow to give sufficient shear values across much of western Minnesota and adjacent areas of extreme eastern Dakotas.

With sufficient shear values and modest instability present given meager dew point values for the last day of May we should see the initial development of supercells along the cold front and potentially in the warm sector over eastern SD and western MN. While initially the storms may be favorable for large hail and a tornado or two, it appears that with a strengthening low level jet during the evening and into the overnight that the development of an MCS is likely. This MCS would likely move southeast through southern Minnesota and potentially into extreme northern Iowa with the greatest threat being damaging winds. Expect additional updates on the severe weather threat later this evening and early tomorrow... While I currently do not have any chase plans, if significant severe weather does appear to be likely I may have a chase update as well.