Severe Weather - May 31

With the lack of an update last night and early this morning, you may have been able to tell that I am not too excited about the severe weather threat today. A warm front will likely push east/northeast through the afternoon into western Iowa by this evening. A cold front will also be located over portions of western Minnesota and across central/eastern Dakotas which will also be a trigger for thunderstorms this afternoon. Today is a combination of favorable shear and weak instability, and then strong instability and weak shear further south along the warm front. Chasers are torn between where to target, where storms are likely but not the greatest tornado chance; or where storms are not so likely but if something were to occur it would likely be the show of the day.

Thunderstorms should develop in the eastern half of South Dakota this afternoon, with the chance of a tornado or two as well as large hail and damaging winds. Forecasts appear to support the development of an MCS, which would likely be capable of damaging winds as it moves into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa tonight. Additional updates as storms form and congeal is likely...