May 15 Thunderstorms

The combination of a warm front lifting northward and a cold front sliding southeast will create the chance for thunderstorms across much of the state of Iowa from this afternoon through the overnight. A cold front is currently located over central SD/ND this morning, with a warm front draped across portions of northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. The warm front is currently being held fairly stationary by continued thunderstorm development across extreme northern Missouri and northeast Kansas; these storms should move northeast through the early afternoon with the chance of some isolated large hail reports. The warm front should slowly move northward, and may approach southern Iowa by this evening. Areas that are along and south of this warm front should see sufficient instability to promote severe thunderstorms, and given strong shear the storms may support tornadic development this afternoon/evening along/south of the front.

In addition to the warm front thunderstorms, western Iowa should see additional thunderstorm/shower development along the cold front that will move into the state this evening. Given such cold air aloft, some instability is expected despite meager surface moisture and temperatures. Given this instability, some isolated severe storms are possible with the cold front during the afternoon/evening across western Iowa and Minnesota.

Overall, it would appear that the state should miss the majority of severe weather, with only extreme southern Iowa being currently under a slight risk for the remainder of afternoon/evening for the thunderstorms north of the warm front. Areas of northern Missouri and eastern Kansas should be more favorable, with all modes of severe weather possible. Parts of southern Iowa may also deal with flooding given the heavy rains during the previous days, and the training of storms today north of the warm front.

Expect cooler conditions to prevail tonight and tomorrow, and near record lows being possible for Saturday night before we begin our warm-up for next week. Initial forecasts through mid-week next week indicate highs in the 70s and 80s across the state.