Severe Weather Drought

Today marked the eighth straight day in which the Storm Prediction Center had not issued a Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado watch over any part of the United States. This is essentially a May record, with eight days of minimal organized severe weather and even one day (May 21) in which not even a single severe weather report was received. For those that are interested in such major projects like VORTEX, this lack of significant severe weather is definitely putting a damper on any hype. At least many are hopeful for a strong start to June, that will hopefully continue through the rest of the month and have mother nature finally give us a good show in the beautiful northern plains states.

Several local chasers/spotters have been using the high plains as chase territory with times like these, minimal moisture is still sufficient at the higher elevations, and low level winds with an easterly component play into good up-slope flow to trigger the convection. A weak/shallow trough is currently over the northern plains, and will create some potential for severe weather across eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota on Memorial Day. However, even with sufficient wind shear over this area, the lack of moisture will likely create high based storms more likely of large hail and some strong wind gusts.

Once this small trough passes through, we'll once again see a ridge in the western half of the CONUS build. Continuing the lack of organized severe weather across the plains states... Forecast models are now beginning to hint at this ridge breaking down towards the last day or two of May and then continuing to support the threat of organized severe weather into the month of June. Once these threats really begin to crank up and enter the forecast, I'll hopefully be able to begin some organized severe weather forecasts for Iowa and adjacent areas.