As we enter the work week we can look forward to seeing bright sunny skies and knowing that temperatures will be above to well above average for this last week of March and beginning of April. A weak upper level ridge will be placed over the Plains states for much of the week, leading to clear skies and fairly strong southerly winds. High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s from east to west over the Central Plains tomorrow with a steady increase expected through Wednesday. Tuesday's highs will range from the mid 60s to ~80 from east to west, and even a few more degrees warmer on Wednesday (from 70 to mid 80s). Highs on Thursday will likely be fairly close to those on Wednesday, but our upper level ridge will no longer be centered across the Plains. We'll be in the process of ushering in a fairly robust trough and potentially closed upper level low onto the Plains on Thursday.
This will be the main focus of the rest of the updates this week, as the potent trough given the right set of features may be one of the first widespread severe weather events of the year. Currently the mid-range models are having problems deciding what to do with the trough late this week, differing as to either keeping it as a progressive wave across the Plains or to bring it into Texas as a cut-off low. Additional updates this week will keep track as to the latest model trends with this system and a quick review of the warm temperatures outside.
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