Thunderstorm Potential - Mar. 9

There are a handful of storm chasers that made the trek down into western Oklahoma and Texas today for a marginal severe weather setup.  Low-level wind shear is good in vicinity of the surface low, and while some cirrus has hindered full heating there does appear to at least be marginal instability for thunderstorms over the next few hours.  Marginal hail and perhaps a brief tornado would appear possible given the latest parameters on the SPC Mesoanalysis page.

Looking ahead to tomorrow this surface low will continue to move northeast, into south-central Kansas during the overnight and then across into northwest Missouri during the day tomorrow before moving into Iowa by tomorrow night. The low pressure system will continue to be vertically stacked, creating steep lapse rates and the potential for thunderstorms. Per the 12z NAM it would appear that during the early afternoon hours given diurnal heating that some surface instability and especially mixed layer instability would be present across parts of eastern Kansas and western Missouri.  Given marginal instability and strong low level vorticity given the proximity to vertically stacked low pressure system that a brief window of development for low-topped supercells would exist. Given cold temperatures aloft, marginal hail would be a threat; in addition to strong low level shear that would warrant the potential for a tornado or two as well.

An additional update is possible either late tonight or early tomorrow regarding any changes to the potential for severe weather for the Central Plains.  I work during the afternoon tomorrow, thus no chase activities are planned and blog updates are not expected.