Winter Storm: Mar. 19/20 Update #3

The off-hour model runs (06z) last night kept some consistency, although they both once again depicted some areas seeing over 18" of snowfall in eastern Oklahoma.  No drastic changes nonetheless, and we have Winter Storm Watches now posted for large areas of northern Oklahoma, southern Kansas, and western Missouri. Areas currently under the Winter Storm Watch are expected to see at least 6" of snow through Saturday evening. This heaviest swath is fairly consistent with my wording last night of where the heaviest snowfall is likely to occur, south of I35/I335 and I70 in Kansas and then between I70 and I44 in western Missouri.

I work this afternoon, thus will not be able to update during the afternoon hours as the cold front begins to dive into the area and we finally start to find out how quickly the change-over from rain to snow will occur.  Current indications are that a few hours of rain in Kansas City before we see snow mixing in and a change over to all snow just after Midnight tonight. The heaviest snow will not likely come with this first band of frontal precipitation, but rather the trowal development that will occur on Saturday and likely skirt the southern portions of the Kansas City Metro.  Will post another update after the 12z runs are available and hopeful confirm the going forecast, but would expect to see at least 4-6" of snow for areas of Kansas City south of I70.  The heaviest snowfall totals still look to occur over portions of Oklahoma and Kansas, but the remaining areas under the Winter Storm Watch aren't going to escape without some hefty amounts as well.

Additional update expected ~11AM...