The Madness Continues... Winter Storm: Mar. 19/20

In the NCAA Tournament there is still plenty of good games with a Tennessee vs San Diego State game going down to the wire, and a Texas vs Wake Forest game going into overtime.  This has been one of the best first days of the tournament that I can remember...

In other madness, there is very high confidence of a winter storm taking shape over parts of the Central/Southern Plains with the potential for 8"+ of localized snowfall and sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts of 45 mph. The question has been on the exact location of this heaviest band, which has been hindered not only by model differences but by run-to-run differences as well.  The latest NAM (00z) has continued its' idea of a frontal passage over Kansas and northwest Missouri Friday night continuing into central Missouri during the day on Saturday. As this front continues into central Missouri the upper low deepens dramatically over Oklahoma and into Arkansas while the surface low tracks over northern Arkansas and then into the Tennessee Valley by Sunday.  This sets up the trowal axis over parts of extreme eastern Kansas and into western Missouri with the potential for over 12" of snow!  The NAM has been the outlier and was widely discounted, but the latest solution is quite similar to the latest run (00z) of the GFS.  The difference lies within the trowal location, as the GFS has the precipitation wrapped tighter/closer to the surface low.  The difference is less than 100 miles between the two, but the question remains on the solution to the ECMWF which has been the preferred model as of late.  I do feel confident enough to indicate that the heaviest swath of snow is likely to fall between I70 and I44 in Missouri, back into areas of eastern Kansas south of I70 & I335/I35.

I have a few errands to do tomorrow morning, but will try and take a quick look at the 12z runs and make a quick update here.  I will likely have a live stream running locally by tomorrow evening with a view out into the yard...  Am still entertaining the possibility of a mobile live stream depending upon the location of the heaviest band of snow.