Severe Weather - June 6

Overnight convection associated with an MCS has continued to move through the state of Iowa this morning, and another cluster of precipitation is also moving across extreme northeast Nebraska and eastern South Dakota as well. This precipitation and its' evolution was a big question mark as to how it would affect the forecast for today's severe weather as it would influence the location of the warm front. It would appear that a cold pool has setup across parts of southeast South Dakota and adjacent areas of Minnesota and Iowa, however, areas behind this convection are already clearing indicating that there may only be a minimal effect from this mornings' precipitation across much of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. In fact, elevated instability is already showing up across much of eastern Nebraska where clearing is already occurring.

Current SPC forecasts still indicate that they do not expect the front to have much of a northward surge at all today, leaving the primary focus for severe weather across southeast Nebraska and extreme northern Kansas. Once storms fire over that region this evening, they would then propagate northeastward along the warm front into western Iowa with the threats of damaging winds and large hail. This may be the more likely scenario, however, an eye will likely be kept on this front and its' northward progression throughout the day.

Severe weather will definitely be a possibility for areas south of a Kearney, NE to Sioux City, IA to Fort Dodge, IA line. All modes of severe weather would appear likely south of this line, including the threat of tornadoes in both discrete supercells and even in a more linear segments given strong shear values across the region. Once again however if the warm front is able to surge north across any portion of Nebraska/Iowa the threat of severe weather may move northward... Additional updates this afternoon may address this if it does indeed look to be occurring.

With prior plans in Vermillion, SD until ~7 PM I don't see any chasing occurring today unless the front can surge well north of its' current forecast. Tomorrow may be another chance with those details later tonight...