Severe Weekend Weather!

One of the more impressive setups for severe weather will take place beginning today and continue through the weekend for the northern/central Plains states. A broad western trough has finally moved into position to create southwesterly flow across the high plains today, and will make progress eastward over the next two days to continue this southwest flow into the central US. Today's severe weather threat will be held to the high plains due to meager moisture in place, and the more favorable upper level support is located across the high plains as well. Today's area of interest will include western Nebraska, northeast Colorado, and nearby adjacent areas including eastern Wyoming. The main threats with today's storms in the high plains will be very large hail and tornadoes given a strengthening low-level jet in the evening hours.

Tomorrow (Saturday) the lee cyclone begins to move off of the high plains and further east into Nebraska, with the aid of strong southerly jets just above the surface and an open Gulf of Mexico even at the surface we will see strong moisture return through the day and into the overnight. Moisture return will likely make it to near 60 or just above by Saturday evening, leading to only moderate instability across Nebraska and into western Iowa along/south of a warm front. The warm front location is somewhat in question, although this mornings' models locate this front from near Lincoln, NE to Clear Lake, IA and eastward towards Dubuque, IA. A dryline also situates itself southward from the low in central Nebraska, leading to other favorable areas for severe weather along this dryline through central Kansas. Shear values are favorable throughout this region, and initiation of storms appears likely nearest to the low pressure system in Nebraska and along/north of the warm front in NE/IA. Further south along the dryline could have explosive development if 700hPa temperatures well above 10C do not cap the convection. Storms that do develop and remain somewhat discrete will be supercellular in nature capable of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The more likely scenario will be for the storms to develop near the surface low and near the warm front, these storms will be capable of large hail/damaging winds. Given moderate moisture, storms may become surface based and definitely become capable of tornadoes as storms move along the warm front. An additional update on tomorrow may be posted later today if necessary...

Sunday is another day that holds very high potential for severe weather, given deeper and more sufficient moisture return south of the warm front that is once again expected to be draped from northern Nebraska through central/northern Iowa (Norfolk, NE to Sioux City, and near Clear Lake). While the warm front doesn't appear as defined on Sunday, likely due to convection debris/cloud cover from Saturday night, sufficient instability and lift would appear strong enough to erode the capping inversion that is once again present south of the warm front (10-12C 700 hPa temperatures). Once again storms should develop near the low pressure and near the warm front, capable of large hail/damaging winds/tornadoes given increasing shear values throughout the evening. As storms continue to develop near the low and further south along the dryline, it would appear that an MCS will once again develop and push east/northeast through Iowa capable of hail/winds. An update will be posted for Sunday either tonight/early tomorrow or potentially early Sunday.

I'm currently scheduled to photograph a wedding in Vermillion, SD on Saturday afternoon and early evening. Meaning I'm already in position for the potential on Saturday along the warm front and perhaps in position for Sunday in northeast Nebraska given an overnight stay. All of my chase gear will be with me needless to say...