Severe Weather Threat - June 16

While some thunderstorms move across parts of central/eastern Iowa this morning, and some lingering showers/cloud cover continue across western Iowa, we are likely to see clearing skies and an increased chance of thunderstorms once again this afternoon/evening and potentially into the overnight hours. Temperatures not only today, but through the remainder of the week are likely to rebound nicely after morning convection and/or cloud cover. Highs into the 80s and 90s over the state are likely through Thursday...

A weak surface low is positioned across central South Dakota this morning, and is likely to only move slightly as we continue into the afternoon hours. Two troughs of low pressure are likely to extend from this low pressure system and create a moderately unstable warm sector for this afternoon across eastern Nebraska, eastern South Dakota, western Iowa and other adjacent areas. Moderately instability combined with a weakly capped environment should create ample development by the afternoon hours along both troughs in SD/NE and perhaps across Minnesota and extreme northern Iowa. While moderate bulk shear is present across the entire warm sector, directional shear appears to be limited over SD/NE/MN/IA where development is likely. Thus it would appear as if the main threats of severe weather will be for large hail and damaging winds with the strongest and more organized storm clusters this afternoon. Additional update are possible if the severe weather threat warrants...

The severe weather threat will likely continue for the northern plains on Wednesday, and continue through Friday. Both Wednesday and Thursday have warm fronts that will likely be positioned across Iowa or just south of the state warranting the risk for severe weather. Thursday will also have a cold front finally pushing eastward over the plains states with an increased risk of severe weather; a similar threat exists on Friday. Additional updates on these risks as the week continues.