Severe Weather Potential - June 21

More of a summer-like pattern has pushed into the central plains, with a weak ridge trying to work into the plains states. This has left us with southwest flow aloft through the state of Iowa, and with a low pressure system working off of the high plains and into Nebraska this morning will set us up for a round of severe weather this afternoon. This low pressure system should work into the four corners area of NE/SD/IA/MN by mid-afternoon, with a well defined warm front to its' east/southeast and a trough of lower pressure to its' south/southwest. Along and south of the warm front should have clear skies through the afternoon, with strong heating near 90 and dew points surging into the lower 70s across the area. This should provide us with moderate to strong instability across the state, and with little in the way of inhibition it would likely to see storm initiation fairly early in the afternoon in areas that clear and develop this instability.

Given decent southeasterly flow within the warm sector, low level shear should be sufficient to warrant a tornadic risk. Combined with the very low LCL levels thanks to good heating and moisture present, this tornadic risk seems to be fairly significant. Storms that do develop and move east/southeast nearly parallel to the warm front would have favorable conditions to be tornadic. Thus, would expect areas of northern Iowa, and eastern Iowa where the warm front is more southeast oriented to see the greatest risk of severe weather including tornadoes.

It is Father's Day, thus a lot of people likely enjoying the day outside. It will be important to pay attention to the weather this afternoon due to the risk of severe weather, specifically tornadoes. An additional update near Noon is expected, this will be a brief update in regards to any change in potential.