Severe Weather Potential - August 7 Update #2

Convective inhibition remains strong, however, confidence has increased that the inhibition will yield to convection during the late afternoon or evening hours across portions of the warm front in South Dakota and Iowa. Thunderstorms that do develop are likely to be supercellular with the threat for very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes given good low level shear and strong instability.

Just a short update... Expect to leave for a chase target in vicinity of Storm Lake, IA in approximately an hour. Storm initiation by 7 PM along the warm front in vicinity of prolonged strong low level convergence that is occurring in this area. Storms should follow this warm front, tapping into strong instability and good shear parameters leading to a continued tornado threat through 9 PM. Eventual evolution to a cluster or linear segments is expected beyond 10 PM with more of a damaging wind threat.