Severe Weather Threat - August 7

Morning convection continues across southwest Iowa, with additional showers/thunderstorms spread throughout the state and spreading eastward at approximately 30-40 mph. These thunderstorms and showers should continue through the morning hours across much of the state, with cloud cover also remaining through 10 AM across the entire state. Look for a gradual decrease in coverage in both showers and cloud cover through the Noon hour and into the afternoon. Skies should begin to clear from west to east through the Noon hour as well, beginning to leave portions of western Iowa under warm and sunny skies by early afternoon. A warm front currently positioned south of the thunderstorm activity this morning should make its' way northward as the lee cyclone moves out of eastern Colorado and into the plains this afternoon. The warm front should become positioned parallel to I90 across southern Minnesota and likely through South Dakota, with a very warm/moist and unstable air mass to its' south.

Instability values should become quite high (3000-4000 j/kg) given surface temperatures near/above 90 degrees and dew point values well into the 60s and perhaps 70s along/south of the warm front. Strong surface convergence as well as theta-e should be taking place along the warm front, with aid from a subtle disturbance in the mid-levels also arriving during the evening hours across northwest Iowa. The combination of strong instability and continued convergence along the boundary may have the potential to break a cap that is likely to be in place throughout the afternoon south of the warm front. Temperatures at 700hPa are likely to be in the 11-13C range, with temperatures at 850hPa above 20C. Despite the warm temperatures aloft, models continue to indicate surface heating is enough to overcome the cap in areas that have this strong convergence along the warm front.

If the cap is overcome within the warm sector across northwest Iowa or South Dakota, expect rapid intensification of updrafts leading to large hail becoming a likely threat. Given strong shear values, especially for the late evening and early nighttime hours as the low level jet begins to aid the low level flow, a tornadic potential will exist with any development. Expect storms to begin to form into somewhat of a cluster or MCS after 10 PM and continue across the state, with perhaps an additional MCS moving out of the Dakotas and into MN/IA during the nighttime hours. An additional update is likely near the Noon hour, and once again through the afternoon and convective inhibition and the location of boundaries, etc. becomes more defined.

Storm Chasing Status: With a conditional threat, I will likely be sitting in the comfortable confines of home through the afternoon. However, with the threat likely evolving within an hours drive will be watching conditions closely. Current four county target area is Lyon and Osceola counties in northwest Iowa, and Nobles and Rock counties in southwest Minnesota.