Severe Weather Potential - August 7 Update #1

Not much for changes in the going forecast or in the current analysis of things across the plains states. Watching clearing skies across the Dakotas and Nebraska, which should also work into western Iowa during the early afternoon hours. Warm front currently located along and just east of the Missouri River from South Dakota into western Iowa. This front should slowly move a bit northward, currently inhibited due to cold pool left from cloud cover and showers this morning. Strong instability and good inhibition is still in the forecast for the warm sector through this evening. A shortwave currently over eastern Colorado should move over the corner regions of SD/NE/MN/IA during the evening hours and should provide enough support for the formation of isolated thunderstorms.

Thunderstorms forming along the warm front would appear to be supercellular in nature during the evening hours, with the threat of very large hail, damaging winds, and the potential for a tornado given favorable storm motion. Storms should merge in the early nighttime hours, and begin more of a damaging wind threat across northern Iowa and southern Minnesota. This is confirmed with the latest SPC outlook upgrading the probabilities for damaging winds across this region...

Will watch the warm front evolution, as well as the 700hPa temperatures that will be inhibiting development until the Colorado shortwave makes its' way over during the evening hours.