Severe Weather Potential - July 7

A trough of low pressure and possible weak low pressure center should be located over central South Dakota this afternoon. A stationary boundary should extend eastward from this low over parts of eastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. This boundary and low pressure center should be the focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon and through the overnight hours, with the potential for severe weather.

While current forecasts indicate that thunderstorms will be more likely to develop in South Dakota, and move into MN/IA/NE during the evening/overnight hours there is potential for development along the frontal boundary during the afternoon and this is supported by a few high-resolution models this morning. Any thunderstorms that do develop this afternoon across the northern plains of SD/NE/IA/MN may be capable of damaging wind gusts and large hail, as well as an associated weak tornado or landspout threat. Storms are likely to congeal into clusters as the evening progresses and move southeastward with time with more of a damaging wind threat through the overnight hours into IA/MN and perhaps northeastern Nebraska.

Additional updates are possible this afternoon as storms develop or initiation becomes more defined...