Severe Weather - July 24

A strong cold front and associated upper level features will aid in thunderstorm development this afternoon across a majority of the state. Given current forecasts for shear, instability, and the strong support with the cold front it would appear that all modes of severe weather are likely across the risk area including isolated tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds.

Strong warm air advection should occur through the morning hours and into the late afternoon, suppressing any convection from occurring. As the cold front continues to dive southeast in the evening it should be able to overcome any inhibition that is in place ahead of it in the warm sector. Initial storm development between 6-8 PM should be supercellular in nature given strong bulk wind shear, and given strong veering winds near the surface a tornado or two is possible. Given the strong forcing along the cold front, thunderstorms should quickly develop along the entire front near sunset. This will promote more of a broken line mode of severe weather, with large hail and damaging winds becoming the main threat for the nighttime hours.


Additional updates are likely this afternoon when mesoscale discussions and eventual watch(es) area issued.