Severe Weather Potential - July 14

The potential for a significant severe weather event over portions of the central/northern plains is there for tomorrow, as potent surface features will be supported by strong upper air parameters. Two areas of interest are going to come into play, both of which have some very big question as to its' potential to produce significant severe weather. A lot of the questions may be answered tomorrow morning once the evolution of the MCS(s) from current severe/tornadic convection across SD/NE is known. An update during the overnight hours or during the early morning will hopefully give an idea as to which area of concern is greatest.

The most favorable target will likely be along a reinforced warm front or outflow boundary following tonights' convection that will setup across southeast Nebraska, southwest Iowa and across northern/western Missouri. Strong heating and moisture return will be in place for this area, providing extreme instability and likely strong lift. Upper air features better align with this area of instability and lift, aided by a shortwave that would likely aid in development. As with the case with most late season events with such extreme parameters in place is the capping concerns... Temperatures at 700hPa near the 12C mark will likely cap thing well into the afternoon, however, there is support with the models indicating that this capping inversion will be broken before 00z. A target in this area could come with some significant rewards, or you could end up with nice blue skies as the cap holds.

Another target area will be further north along the cold front which is forecasted to move into western Minnesota and near the SD/NE/IA/MN corners and into eastern Nebraska. Capping will be less of a concern here with a strong mechanism for storm development (cold front) and 700hPa temperatures less than 12C. Development is likely by the evening hours along the cold front throughout western Minnesota and into SD/IA/NE. The problem with the setup here arises with the displacement of instability and shear parameters, with strong instability present along/ahead of the cold front (especially at low levels), but the best shear further ahead of the front. Any development just ahead of the cold front may be able to tap into both instability and shear, thus able to put on a show... This would rely on any outflow boundaries from morning convection...

Additional updates likely within the next 8-12 hours... I will likely favor the secondary target area as it is quite local.