Quiet Weather... For Now

Quiet weather continued through the weekend, with clear skies dominating the forecast. These clear skies allowed temperatures to moderate well over the weekend, with high temperatures into the 40s across the areas with little to no snow-pack and into the upper 20s and near 30 for those that do. The clear skies also gave way to cool overnight temperatures given ample variational cooling with the light winds. Conditions like this will continue for much of the week with a high pressure system centered over the Northern Plains.

A storm system will pass through the Southern Plains on Monday, and continue into the Gulf Coast on Tuesday. Behind this we will see a large scale ridge build into the Plains for midweek, allowing for another warm-up with temperatures likely reaching normal or perhaps even a few readings of above normal temperatures for Thursday/Friday! A quick wave will move across the Rockies on Friday and begin to flatten this ridge for the beginning of the weekend. This quick moving system will have enough energy that it may bring with it the chance of precipitation for areas of the Plains. At this time there is significant differences in the track and speed of the associated vorticity maximum and thus confidence is not very high to mention any areas or times for precipitation.

Behind this initial wave comes a system that has been well advertised by both the GFS and ECMWF for the past several days. A very strong upper level wave associated with great dynamics throughout its' lifetime as it crosses over the Plains and moves into the Great Lakes region. Details regarding position and exact timing are of course in question, given the near 60 hour difference in timing the GFS and ECMWF currently have. The track is a little more agreeable between the two models, given a low developing over the lee of the Rockies in Colorado and tracking eastward into KS/NE seems probable, with a quick ejection northwest into the Great Lakes region once reaching the Missouri River thanks to a strong jet maximum in the upper levels. This system has the potential to be one of the first severe weather producers given its' good dynamics and likely thermodynamics (50s for temperatures & dew points). Although the best bet would be a cold core situation close to the low pressure system. Other than the potential for severe weather, conditions to the northwest of the low center would likely endure blizzard conditions for at least a period of time. Moisture will be ample in addition to strong dynamics and deepening surface low, thus a strong deformation zone is likely. Given the tight pressure gradient, surface winds sustained above 30 mph would also appear likely with even higher gusts. Once again the exact location and timing are definite questions, but it does appear favorable for a significant storm system for the Plains in the March 8-11 time frame. Additional updates through the week will likely reference this storm for a majority of the discussion.