A Few Disturbances...

A few different blobs of information today, the first of which will be about a weak disturbance that is making its' way through the Plains tonight and tomorrow. The next about a disturbance currently over the southern Plains, giving areas of northern Texas over a half-foot of snow and still going. And finally we'll get to the next large storm system for the Plains states that will come across on Valentine's weekend.

So for the first disturbance to discuss, an upper level wave associated with a weak surface low pressure system is colocated across the Iowa/Nebraska borders at this time. These two features will continue to rotate down into Missouri during the overnight hours, and push eastward during the day tomorrow. At this time the system is going to lack moisture and sufficient large scale lift to give areas anything more than an inch or so of snowfall. These areas of snow are going to be pretty small in terms of coverage as well. Portions of northern Missouri and southern Iowa may see ~1" of snow during the overnight tonight, with the typical flurries for many other adjacent areas including Kansas City. This 'snowfall' will continue into areas of central and eastern Missouri during the afternoon tomorrow before exiting into the midwest and Ohio Valley by tomorrow night. This may be able to create some slick conditions for a few areas overnight, but does not appear to be a widespread event.

Our next discussion wil be about the upper level disturbance over the Southern Plains today that will continue to push eastward along the Gulf Coast tomorrow, developing an area of low pressure just off shore later this evening. With cold air already entrenched well south, this low pressure system will aid in pulling the cold air even further along the Gulf Coast and resulting in snowfall for many areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and even the Florida Panhandle! Accumulations along the shorelines are not expected to be significant, however areas not too far inland may see accumulations greater than 4". Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for many of these areas expecting to see snow through Friday.

Finally our discussion on the next significant storm for the Plains. As we head into the weekend, the next storm system to affect the northern and central Plains will begin to take shape. Diving nearly straight south out of Canada will come an upper level low and associated disturbances. Currently, models depict the upper level low traveling through eastern portions of the Dakotas and Nebraska before closing off at 500hPa and beginning its' turn eastward over Missouri. This is a path that would likely give areas of western/central Minnesota, western/central Iowa, and northeast Missouri the heaviest snows. Generally 3-6" will be a good estimate for these areas, with heavier amounts coming as the storm rotates eastward. Meaning areas of northeast Missouri and into central Illinois may see the heaviest amounts nearing ~8" as of current model runs. This system will enter/exit the Plains on the weekend, leaving us with cold and flurries by the start of next week. One thing to note for those watching the east coast get burried, this storm system also looks to take a track to give most of those areas at least a few more additional inches of snow for early next week!