Winter Storm: Jan. 28-30

A major winter storm is still expected to impact portions of the Southern and Central Plains states in the Thursday-Friday time frame.  Forecast models continue to be in fair agreement that a low pressure system will form in the High Plains regions of NM/TX and continue east/northeastward over Texas and into Arkansas/Louisiana and points eastward before making its' way northward over the Appalachian Mountains.  This low pressure system will have ample gulf moisture to work with, that is currently moving northward over southern Texas.  This along with good warm air advection is setting the stage for a significant winter storm not only in terms of snowfall amounts, but the potential for significant freezing rain and sleet over portions of Oklahoma and Arkansas.  Further north, strong cold air advection with the presence of an arctic high over the Northern Plains will push the precipitation type to all snow over parts of southern Kansas, southern Missouri, northern Oklahoma, and extreme northern Arkansas. Current snowfall forecasts of 6-12" are likely in these regions with the potential for some isolated higher amounts given the dynamics and strong warm/cold air advections taking place.

Ahead of this system, a series of weak shortwaves will give the portions of NE/IA/KS/MO a shot at some brief snow flurries or showers tomorrow morning through the afternoon. Areas of north-central and eastern Missouri are in the best position to see these light snow showers, however, accumulations should still remain at a dusting at best.

Regarding the positioning of our Thursday/Friday winter storm, areas south of a Liberal, KS to Wichita, KS to St. Louis, MO line will see snowfall. With the heaviest axis of snowfall likely falling 50 miles north/south of a Woodward, OK to Winona, MO line. Along this heaviest snow axis, 6-12" with isolated higher amounts appear possible. Also of concern will be the potential for significant sleet and freezing rain, with this axis coming 50 miles north/south of a Altus, OK to Jonesboro, AR line.  These are initial positions of heaviest snow/ice axis', as this system is still coming onshore.  Morning model runs should have a much better idea on this system, as sporadic changes could still ensue with the forecast models.  An additional update tomorrow morning will address if any sporadic changes have been made...