Melting Snow... Next Week Storm Systems...

Temperatures are on the rise across much of the Plains states, and look to continue to do so for the remainder of this week and even well into next week.  A ridge at 500hPa builds into the central plains and will be responsible for the warm-up today and tomorrow, just before a weak Canadian system brings some frozen precipitation chances to the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and other parts of the central Plains.  Along with this Canadian system, we'll see another low pressure system enter the southern Plains and quickly become cutoff near the Gulf Coast.  This system may bring some heavy rains and precipitation to the southern Plains and Gulf Coast regions for late this week, but should not hinder our warm-up for the northern and central Plains.

Temperature values today will range from the 20s across MN/IA/WI to the upper 50s across western SD/NE/KS.  Wednesdays highs increase to the upper 20s along portions of snow covered areas of the Dakotas, Minnesota and Iowa; to the 60s across western Kansas.  Highs from the 20s to 50s from north to south across the Dakotas/Minnesota to KS/MO on Thursday.  Similar temperatures will persist for the remainder of the week and into next week ahead of a building trough at 500hPa.

This trough at 500hPa will allow at least two storm systems to round the base of the trough and eject onto the plains states.  Currently models forecast the first of these systems to occur mid-week, and with significant moisture and warm air to work with could lead to a substantial rain event across the central plains and further north into places such as IA/NE and even southern MN.  This could lead to some flooding concerns for areas that still have significant snow pack next week, as ample rainfall would combine with quick snow-melt to create significant run-off.  As this system continues eastward could still need to some wintery precipitation across the northern Plains, with much of the precipitation across the Dakotas falling as snow.  The second system looks to occur in the January 23-25 time frame and may be another significant winter storm for the northern and central plains.  Significant snowfall and increasing winds would be the highlights of this system, which may mean blizzard or near-blizzard conditions for some areas.

These systems are definitely in the long range forecasts, so be sure to enjoy the warming weather for the next week or so...  More details on these systems will be posted as models gain consistency and confidence in a solution increases.