Thunderstorms...

With hot and moist air filtering into the state, the chances for thunderstorms are going to as well. This afternoon should see thunderstorms develop along a nearly stationary surface boundary from northern Minnesota into portions of central Nebraska. A majority of thunderstorms should not be severe, although some of the clusters in extreme northern Minnesota, and central Nebraska may become severe during the evening hours. By 10 PM these thunderstorms should begin to fall apart given the waning instability.

The chance of thunderstorms will once again develop tomorrow afternoon/evening along the surface boundary that will draped across the plains states. The best chance for severe thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening should once again stretch from central Nebraska into the northern Peninsula of Michigan. The threats with storms will mainly be large hail and damaging winds, with the potential for these threats to continue into the nighttime hours. A small portion of northwest Iowa may see the potential for severe weather during the early overnight hours.

The potential for severe weather will also exist on Wednesday as a surface boundary continues to linger over parts of the northern plains. More weak shortwave troughs will also work into the northern plains, expanding the thunderstorm potential. The severe weather threat at this time is questionable, and limited. But, thunderstorms can be expected across much of the northern plains including northwest Iowa once again. It is likely that at least a few isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible over this area of thunderstorm risk.

Long range forecasts continue to show this surface boundary draped over the northern plains, as zonal flow continues with shortwave troughs. With this boundary over the area the chances for thunderstorms will likely continue to threaten portions of the state. Severe weather threats during this time are unknown, but at least isolated severe weather chances should exist.

An update tomorrow will detail the severe weather threat for northwest Iowa. Later updates may touch on the severe weather threats for Iowa, when updates are possible.