Thunderstorms, Some Severe?

Thunderstorm chances will once again creep into the forecast for the start of the new week, with the potential for some of the thunderstorms to be severe. A cold front will begin to enter the state on Sunday afternoon, sparking thunderstorms along it from the Great Lakes into the plains of Nebraska and Kansas. This cold front will continue east on Monday along the Great Lakes, with a minimal sever threat. However, further west in the plains the previous cold front is likely to become nearly stationary and become the focus for thunderstorms on Monday afternoon.

Thunderstorms this afternoon in areas of the Dakotas along the cold front will continue to expand during the evening hours with the threats of both large hail and damaging winds. With the increase of low level jet overnight tonight, expect those storms to congeal into one or more lines of storms with a continued threat of severe weather. These storms should enter into western Minnesota, and northwestern Iowa during the early morning hours with a threat of large hail, and damaging winds. Expect the storms to be more isolated in other parts of western Iowa during the morning hours, with central and eastern Iowa receiving the lingering showers/storms, as well as cloud cover during the morning hours on Sunday.

The cold front should be draped across from northeast to southwest across the plains on Sunday afternoon. The front should be positioned across southern Minnesota, northwestern Iowa, and into eastern Nebraska. Storms firing along this front during the afternoon should be capable of both large hail and damaging winds. The threat should continue during the evening and overnight hours across much of the state of Iowa as storms continue to congeal into more linear segments.

Monday's severe threat will once again be focused by a frontal boundary draped over the state, with positioning questionable at the moment. The best potential does seem to be across the state of Iowa, where current forecasts have this front. With warm temperatures and good moisture, instability will once again not be lacking south, and along the front. The thunderstorms that develop during the afternoon should have no problem becoming severe, with a potential for large hail and damaging winds. More details on the Sunday and Monday's severe weather threats will be available in later updates.