Upcoming Week Excitement

We'll start out the week with much less wind than what we saw yesterday over the state, in response we won't warm-up quite as much as when that wind was in place. Highs today over the state of Iowa should range from the mid 60s in the east to the mid 70s along the Missouri. Lows tonight should fall into the 40s to mid 50s from east to west, with clouds and some showers/thunderstorms moving into the state from the northwest. The remainder of the week will be in southerly flow, with a warm front that will slowly move northward and potentially pass through the state during the latter half of the week. Temperatures will be at or above normal, with some impressive moisture making its' way up to the state; currently the GFS wants to paint 70s for dewpoints over the state. More on the system that will effect the plains state in the chasing section below...

Highs for the week will range from the upper 60s to lower 80s from east to west on Monday, the cooler temperatures in the east will be in response to clouds and showers present. Some lingering overnight on Monday, with lows near 50 to the mid 50s from northeast to southwest. Tuesday's highs won't change too much, near 70 in the east to near 80 in the west; lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s from northeast to southwest. Wednesday may be the first of many chances for thunderstorms over the state, with highs ranging from near 70 to near 80 from northeast to southwest; warm front likely just south of the state. The severe weather threat is likely to be minimal with no upper level support and meager moisture. Lows Wednesday night will show the increased moisture, near 50 to near 60 across the state as southerly winds continue just above the surface. Thursday and Friday may be highly variable dependent upon the system's movement, but current forecasts will show mid 70s to mid 80s across the state. Lows overnight in the mid 50s to mid 60s, with dewpoints in the same respect over the state. Chances of thunderstorms have been introduced in the forecast for both days with the warm front lingering around the state, likely draped over the state on Friday. This indicates the best chance for severe weather is likely on Friday with the frontal passage. Saturday may also see warm temperatures and high humidity with more chances of thunderstorms and severe weather. A lot of changes may come into play, likely trimming off precip chances for a night or two and focusing more on one or two of the last four days during the week. More information on the severe weather chances will likely be introduced throughout the week as chasing resumes on the plains.

TWISTEX Update: No official word from Samaras and crew on what the plan may be for the remainder of the week (EDIT: Update received 9:30 this morning with likely operations by Thursday), however severe weather chances look to resume as early as Wednesday and persist through the weekend potentially. Models still having trouble resolving what this deep trough will do, whether it will slowly make its' way onto the plains or if it will cutoff and sit itself down in the southwest. Either way it looks to at least give the high plains some good severe weather chances for a couple of days, with the potential for a threat to move out onto the central plains by Friday/Saturday, etc.

Wednesday looks to have a strong surface low over the high plains of CO/NE with associated warm front and dryline bulging eastward. Moisture likely only into the mid 50s just ahead of the low, but for the high plains this should be sufficient. Shear in the lower levels will also be sufficient for sustaining updrafts, however upper level support could be better. The big wrench in this day may be the increasing temperatures at 850 and 700, potentially meaning we could be looking at elevated, large hailers over western portions of NE/KS and maybe eastern CO. May not be a bad chase day for structure and hail, especially with the target area being in the same area for Thursday's event.

Thursday may be the best day of the system, with forecasted triple point over some part of NE/KS. Sufficient moisture and heating south of the boundary should give way to substantial instability. Although a capping inversion is likely to exist, the combination of heating and the lift with associated waves in the mid-levels should aid in thunderstorm development along the dryline and warm front. The best shear at this point looks to be forecasted along the warm front, or near the triple point. This will lean me to believe the best target area will fall along the KS/NE border (warm front) or northern Kansas (dryline & triple point).

Overall the system may continue to produce severe weather for the week and weekend over the plains states. Low pressure system, warm front and associated cool front will all be potential players in the severe weather setup. A lot of questions still in how the system will evolve and how quick or if the trough will even move out into the plains. Expect daily updates throughout the week on the severe weather threat...