May 1 Severe Weather Threat

Severe weather is likely over portions of the central plains, with all modes of severe weather (tornadoes, hail, and wind) possible. A strong low pressure system associated will begin to be cut-off during the late hours of the day. This low will be responsible for the setup of a triple point over some portion of either southeastern NE or eastern KS during the evening hours. The dryline and warm front intersection may be a key positioning for any severe weather initiation before midnight. As we head into th later nighttime hours, a cold front further to the west will begin to overtake the dryline and likely initiate convection in mainly linear form across the plains.

Several concerns still exist with the setup for severe weather, one being moisture return and the other being warm temperatures aloft creating a cap over the plains. The capping problem is a definite concern for the southern portion of the current outlook (southern KS and OK) where storms may not be able to initiate until the cold frontal passage ~Midnight. To the north, less moisture may exist, however cooling in the mid-levels may still weaken the cap enough to initiate convection during the late evening hours.

As far as chasing this setup, I am unable to be out of Ames until 5 PM. This limits me extensively on where I can be in time for a good storm. Depending on how things do look when my day on-campus ends, I will consider heading out locally. I may end up waiting for more of a linear mess to come to me during the early morning hours, as I could definitely use some lightning picture opportunities as I've missed the last few. More updates on my chase potential as well as the entire system in later updates during the day...

12:45 AM Update: SPC Day 1 will initially includes a large portion of the state under a slight risk of severe weather; areas west of a Mason City to Waterloo to Keokuk line. This slight risk is maximized for areas of southwestern Iowa, where the potential for tornadoes and large hail is greatest. Although current SPC wording doesn't indicate a lot of potential, not sure if I want to believe that currently. Later SPC updates may prove otherwise with an increased threat and potential moderate risk if moisture return can be realized...