April 24 Severe Weather

A few thunderstorms exist over the state as we enter early Thursday, these storms shouldn't capable of much more than some moderate rain and a few lightning strikes. Some gusty winds may accompany the storms in the southern third of the state, as more moisture exists in that region. These isolated storms should continue overnight and may continue into the daytime hours. Expect clearing to take place though as a warm front moves northward through the state. The southern two-thirds of the state should see temperatures in the 70s and a few 80s even dependent on the clouds. Moisture will also make a rapid return into the state, with 50s and even 60s for dew points. This combination of moisture and warmth is likely to provide the state with some instability that will be realized by thunderstorms during the evening and overnight hours.

The severe weather setup for the plains is likely to consist of a cold front, dryline, low pressure system and a trough or two. The troughs are likely to be established from tonights' convection, although already weakening. The cold front and dryline intersection is going to be a big target area for storms, this is likely to occur over portions of south-central or southwestern Nebraska and north-central/northwest Kansas in the afternoon and evening hours. Other storms may develop along the cold front through eastern Nebraska and potentially into western Iowa. That potential is dependent on clearing and the advancement of a pseudo-warm front that features the moisture to the south. Other portions of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas may also see severe weather along a dryline/trough.

SPC outlook for day 1 was just issued as well as I've completed typing the paragraph above. Their first outlook of the day is going to put the western half of Iowa under a slight risk for severe weather; while limiting a moderate risk to areas of north-central Kansas and south-central Nebraska where the cold front and dryline intersection is likely. Although Iowa is currently only featured under a slight risk, just across the border marks an area that is still under a pretty good threat of severe weather. With the potential of this system to move quicker (or slower), areas of western Iowa should still be on the lookout for the severe potential. The main threats with the severe weather will likely come during the late evening and overnight hours as a strong MCS system. Damaging winds and large hail are thus likely to be the main threats with the storms overnight on Thursday.

Additional severe weather updates may be made later during the day on Thursday...