Wind, Snow, Rain, Hail, & Tornadoes?

A very strong low pressure system is expected to track directly over the state tomorrow evening and overnight. To the south and east of this low pressure system, a warm front is expected to be pulled northward allowing warm and moist air to infiltrate portions of the state. As the low continues to move northeastward during the evening, a cold front should accompany it through the state. The combination of the fronts and low, along with the rest of the dynamics is going to produce a large threat for severe weather over the southeastern quarter of the state. While damaging winds and large hail are going to be main threats, tornadoes are also going to be possible with the extreme amounts of wind shear that are available to these storms. Currently the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has this quarter of the state under a Slight risk, with a Moderate risk just along the MO/IA border that extends southward. Indications from the SPC lean towards the potential for an upgrade to high risk for portions of Missouri, Arkansas and other surrounding states. Portions of the moderate risk may extend into southeastern Iowa depending on the northward progress of the warm front. Either way, people in the southeast quarter of the state should be aware of this potential and after the tornado warning testing today with Severe Weather Awareness week people should definitely be on top of things and prepared.

On the other side of this system, precipitation is still likely as the front moves northeastward through the state and towards the Great Lakes region. Various winter weather watches and warnings have been issued for portions of WI/MN/SD/NE and Lyon county in extreme northwest Iowa. Lyon county could be seeing upwards of 6 inches of snowfall with this system, while areas just to the southeast of them could still see 2-6 inches of snowfall. Anywhere north of a line from LaCrosse, WI to Fort Dodge through Onawa, IA could see accumulating snowfall upwards of 2 inches. Areas south of that line may still see snowfall, mainly Friday morning, however accumulations more than an inch seem unlikely at this time. Even where only rain is expected, problems may exist with the aforementioned severe weather as well as flooding concerns as several inches of water may be seen for some areas.

Today is looking to be the last warm day until early next week, as cold air behind this upcoming system will keep us below the 50 degree mark. More updates tonight on the severe weather potential and accumulating snowfall potential may be expected.