Severe Weather Continues...

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Severe weather across the Plains states continues today and is expected to continue tomorrow as well. Yesterday's event were well documented and have been all over nearly every national news station and even local news stations last night and today. Tornadoes threatening two well populated areas, Wichita and Oklahoma City, and unfortunately impacting one (Oklahoma City) causing 5 deaths and numerous other injuries. Tornadoes continued across other parts of southern Kansas and throughout Oklahoma, even as far south of the Red River Valley. I'm not going to spend too much time to rehash all of these details as I'm sure everyone has read all about them by now...

Today's storm threat was fairly condition despite having great instability and shear present, due to the strong elevated mixed layer that capped all attempts at convection until ~8PM. Since then we have a few thunderstorms along the warm front in Illinois and into eastern Missouri, as well as a severe/tornadic thunderstorm in northwest Oklahoma. Additional storms should continue to fire and the current areas of thunderstorms expand through the evening and early overnight as a strong low level jet creates good lift across the frontal boundary. For this reason the SPC has issued a new tornado watch that covers areas of Oklahoma and Kansas, with additional watches (likely severe) being needed later tonight. The main threat with storms beyond the 10pm time-frame will be large hail given the steep lapse rates and good elevated instability. These storms will likely move out of Kansas during just before sunrise, and exiting western Missouri by mid-morning. This will likely set the stage for another severe weather event across portions of Kansas and Missouri as well as some adjacent areas (to a lesser extent).

By late afternoon tomorrow a warm front should be situated from near the KS/MO border across northern Missouri and through central Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. Dew point values in the mid to upper 60s can be expected to the south of this boundary and to the southeast of a cold front that should be positioned from Manhattan, KS southwest through Enid, OK and into north-central Texas. Surface profiles suggest widespread 2000+ J/kg of surface based instability with areas of 3000 J/kg likely occurring in areas where moisture can pool along/near boundaries. A fairly stout elevated mixed layer should keep any initiation at bay until late afternoon and evening hours with northern Missouri likely seeing convection before areas of eastern Kansas due to slightly cooler temperatures aloft. Bulk shear values of 45-65 kts will easily support supercells capable of very large hail throughout the warm sector. Southerly winds at the surface through much of eastern Kansas/Oklahoma will likely limit tornado potential somewhat through those areas, although isolated tornadoes will likely not be ruled out. A higher likelihood of tornadic supercells will exist in areas where surface winds can back (become southeast), likely east of a developing low near the KS/MO/NE intersections. Stronger low level turning of the hodographs will exist here and likely promote a higher risk of tornadoes over northern Missouri and perhaps into northeast Kansas as well. Convection will likely continue to expand into the early overnight hours, into perhaps line segments as the low level jet increases the forward motion and provides more unidirectional shear. This will provide more of a focus for large hail and perhaps damaging winds into the overnight hours for parts of eastern Kansas and areas of northern/central Missouri. Another concern with convection tomorrow evening/overnight will be the potential for flooding given some likelihood for the training of these thunderstorms along/just ahead of the cold front and near the frontal intersection for parts of Kansas and Missouri.

A few more rounds of showers and thunderstorms look to be possible through the end of the week. However, nothing prominently severe looks to occur at this time...