May 20 Severe Weather?

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A day of light to moderate rain and embedded thunderstorms during the evening hours last night left areas of Kansas City with another 0.75-1.25" of rain on the already wet ground. Additional rainfall today will not be as widespread or as significant, thus expect the flooding threat to diminish over the local Kansas City area. Other areas of Missouri will see a flooding threat continue through the day as heavier rains with embedded thunderstorms continue, and another round of general moderate rainfall occurs over eastern portions of the state overnight tonight.

Main concern for this update is the potential of some severe weather this afternoon and evening over parts of extreme eastern Kansas and western Missouri. The upper level low currently centered over central Kansas will slowly progress eastward in conjunction with the surface low currently along the KS/OK border. Cold air aloft will allow for at least some destabilization of the lower levels given at least some sunshine this afternoon over these areas. If some clearing can occur, expect at least 500 J/kg of instability with upwards of 1000 J/kg of most-unstable CAPE being possible. At least marginally severe hail should be realized if sufficient instability values can be reached over parts of western Missouri. If low level instability can be realized with surface heating this afternoon, fairly substantial turning in the lower portions of the hodographs may allow for the risk of tornadoes just ahead of the surface low pressure system where winds will be southeasterly. At this time there is undoubtedly some concerns with the setup, but the main concern will be whether or not some clearing will occur to allow the destabilization needed.

This will be a fairly narrow corridor for severe weather this afternoon where enough destabilization can occur and the low level wind fields are supportive. Latest SPC outlooks have this area defined fairly well  at the moment.

An update tomorrow may reflect on any severe weather that occurs today and otherwise look at the upcoming pattern of very warm and humid weather!