Winter Storm: Feb. 13-14 Update #1

The storm totals with the upcoming winter storm are in limbo with the latest model runs backing down on total snowfall accumulations. This afternoon's latest runs continued to back down on snowfall amounts, the NAM specifically took the storm even well below warning criteria. With the system coming together rather quickly over the central plains, and falling apart even faster during the afternoon hours on Friday it is likely that much of the state will not see greater than 4 inches of snow. Areas of southwest Iowa have been put under a Winter Storm Warning and will likely see 4-7 inches of snow by Friday evening. Other areas across southern Iowa will likely see 2-6 inches of snowfall, with isolated amounts in the 8-10+ range. These isolated higher amounts will be caused by elevated instability, which will likely create bands of thundersnow that will accumulate snow quickly during the afternoon/evening hours. Once north of Highway 20, total snowfall accumulations should be under 3 inches, with the Iowa/Minnesota border receiving little if any snow from this system.

Expect other parts of southern Iowa that are currently under at Winter Storm Watch may only be upgraded to advisory criteria with mentioning of isolated areas receiving significant snowfall. Another update is likely later tonight...