Severe Weather to Begin August?

Just a quick update to the forecast for Iowa and surrounding areas, sorry for the lack of posts lately. Several shortwaves and a lingering surface boundary is in place today over the northern plains, this could lead to several rounds of thunderstorms over the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin; as well as surrounding areas. The highest risk of severe weather is likely over southern Minnesota, where the best thermodynamics are in place. Shear is sufficient to warrant supercell thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and even isolated tornadoes this afternoon/evening. Currently, the latest outlooks have this enhanced threat of severe weather along the Iowa/Minnesota borders and points northward.

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening, mainly across the northern third of the state. Some of these storms may be severe, with the threat of hail and wind the main threat. However, dependent upon the location of the surface boundary, the enhanced risk that is currently over southern Minnesota may be a factor in the Iowa thunderstorms and thus increase the risk for this evening.

Another round of severe weather is more likely across the entire state tomorrow, Monday, August 4th. As a small trough begins to move into the plains states, a cold front is likely to begin to form and propagate southeastward. This cold front will overtake the lingering surface boundary from today, thus providing a fairly complex situation for severe weather. Although the SPC only has minimal slight risk in place for the state, they have mentioned as well as some model forecasts support, a fairly impressive risk for severe weather. Although mainly large hail and damaging winds will be possible, this may be fairly widespread across the state of Iowa. Another update is possible tomorrow afternoon or potentially early morning if the risk does look to be increased across the state...