Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Slightly Below Normal

This weeks' forecast doesn't feature the nice and mild temperatures that we've seen over the past few weeks. Rather, the high and lows will both be slightly below normal for the state. Highs for this time of year should range from near 70 in the northwest to the lower 70s in the southeast. Average lows should be in the lower 40s for northwest Iowa, and ranging upward to the upper 40s in southeast Iowa. Today's highs across the state varied from the lower 60s in the northeast, to the lower/mid 70s along the Missouri River. Lows overnight were in the mid 30s over northwest Iowa, and increased to the upper 40s over southeast Iowa. So the lows were close to average in most places except northwest Iowa, and the highs were near normal for most areas besides the eastern half of the state.

Lows tonight are expected to range from near 40 along the northern border, to the upper 40s in the south. Highs tomorrow will be below normal, with highs not even reaching 60 in the northeast; to highs only in the mid 60s for the most part in southwestern Iowa. Lows overnight on Wednesday under clear and calm conditions will drop to near freezing levels in some parts of the state. Mid 30s in the northwest, to lower 40s in the southeast will leave everyone pretty chilly as they wake up for Thursday. Mainly sunny skies on Thursday will allow the temperatures to rebound nicely, lower 60s in the east to the lower 70s in the west. We enter the last day of the work week with lows overnight on Thursday in the upper 30s to the mid 40s from north to south. Friday's highs will range from the lower 60s to the lower 70s from northeast to southwest, not changing much from the previous days of the week.

The weekend should see a small warm-up before our next storm system takes aim for the area as early as Sunday. Rain chances may linger for a while early next week, with temperatures remaining near or just below normal...

Sunday, September 28, 2008

Sunday Night Thunderstorms Update #3

Last update of the night as the storms have become a long line of showers and embedded thunderstorms just ahead of the cold front. This line of thunderstorm currently is along and northwest of a Forest City, to Fort Dodge, to Logan line. A few of these storms may be able to produce gusty winds in excess of 40 mph, and some small hail. The strongest cell at this time is near Gilmore City, some marginal hail may be possible as Des Moines NWS has mentioned that the storm is pushing the severe limits right now.

The line of storms should move to the southeast at generally 25 mph, continuing to progress through the state during the nighttime hours. The east/west extent of the line is fairly significant, nearly 100 miles at this time. Have a good night... Enjoy the sound of rain and thunder!

Sunday Night Thunderstorms Update #2 & NBC Sunday Night Football

Another update on the thunderstorms over and entering parts of Iowa is below, but first a little off-topic discussion on a feature of NBC's Sunday Night Football halftime show.

NBC featured the football team of Applington-Parkersburg, which have their home field based in Parkersburg, IA which was destroyed by the EF5 tornado in May this year. The show really didn't touch on too much of what was going on in the city, and only featured short clips of the city and the football team. It is a pretty good story, as the AP Falcons are undefeated this year and are the #1 team in class 1-A. Just thought I would share this beings the story is based in Iowa and continues to be in national headlines.

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The severe weather threat has dwindled with the sunset, only a few warnings remain in effect over northeast Nebraska at this time. Thunderstorms do continue to push southeastward into northwest Iowa with gusty winds, and some potentially small hail. Other showers, isolated thunderstorms, have also continued to expand over parts of northwest Iowa. Expect mainly showers to continue over north-central Iowa for the next hour or two, and expand as the cold front enters western Iowa tonight.

Sunday Night Thunderstorms Update #1

Severe thunderstorms have continued to develop farther south along the cold front over southeastern South Dakota, and much of northeast Nebraska. Other thunderstorms have moved east from east-central South Dakota into southwest Minnesota. The thunderstorms over southwestern Minnesota should not pose a severe threat, but may produce some locally heavy rainfall over the next few hours. A line of thunderstorms is likely to move east/southeast and enter portions of northwest Iowa by 9 PM. This line of thunderstorms is likely to persist into the nighttime hours as it transverses the state.

A small complex of showers/thunderstorms has developed over mainly Buena Vista county in northwest Iowa. This complex is moving southeast around 20 mph, and has occasionally produced some signs of strengthening. Conditions do not seem favorable for severe weather, thus locally heavy rain and lightning should remain the only concerns as the storms hold together for the next few hours. Updates on the thunderstorms will be likely through the evening as the potential for a few severe thunderstorm warnings to be issued for northwest Iowa.

Sunday Night Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms have developed along two cold fronts that cover portions of the Dakotas and Nebraska, a weak low pressure system, outflow boundary, and warm front also exist with this complex system just to the west of the state. With the thunderstorms that have developed in South Dakota, several severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued. This has prompted the Storm Prediction Center to issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for eastern South Dakota, and eastern Nebraska. This severe thunderstorm watch is in effect from 5 PM until 11 PM tonight, thunderstorms should continue to develop along both the leading weak cold front, and the secondary cold front. The front and thunderstorms should push east/southeast into Minnesota and Iowa during the early overnight hours. You can view some of the latest radar images that I've viewing on the Iowa Chaser Homepage.

The severe weather risk over Iowa is fairly low, as with sunset it is expected that the storms should weaken below severe limits. Some gusty winds, and small hail, however, cannot be completely be ruled out over western Iowa. The thunderstorms may continue into central Iowa during the overnight hours, and over eastern Iowa through mid-afternoon on Monday. Lows overnight tonight will range from the mid 50s in southeast Iowa, to the lower 50s over parts of northwest Iowa. The extreme northwest corner of the state may be behind the cold front throughout the night, leading to lows as cool as the mid 40s. Highs tomorrow will show the cooler air, although only a degree or two cooler than today. Near 70 along the northern borders of the state, to the lower 70s across the southern third of the state.

A cooler and drier week should be ahead for the remainder of the week across the state. Long range weather models are however hinting at some October excitement beginning as early next weekend...

Friday, September 26, 2008

Football (& Weekend) Forecast

Didn't have time to make any forecasts for tonight's high school football games, but the weather was obviously great throughout the state. Game time temperatures should have ranged from the lower 70s at kick-off to the lower 60s by game end. Winds were fairly light throughout the state, so they shouldn't have bothered any aspect of the game either. This forecast won't stay quite as good as the Hawkeyes start out their Big 10 conference schedule with a game against Northwestern. The detailed forecast for their game is below, but first a look at the entire weekend for the state of Iowa.

Lows tonight will be fairly mild, ranging from the mid 50s in eastern Iowa to the lower 60s in western Iowa just ahead of a cold front. This cold front should begin to cut into the state during the early morning hours, giving northwest Iowa a small chance of a showers or thunderstorm. Winds ahead of the front should be southerly at 5-10 mph, but behind the front winds will switch to northwesterly and increase to 10-20 mph. The front should make its' way into central Iowa before Noon on Saturday, with a chance of showers/thunderstorms throughout central and eastern Iowa during the afternoon. Highs will be fairly uniform across the state, with various degrees of cloud cover depending on the location of any rain. The highs will mainly range from north to south, from the upper 70s to the lower 80s.

Any rain chances should be out of the forecast by Saturday night, with the front past the state, lows will drop into the lower 50s for northern Iowa and range to the upper 50s in southern Iowa. Partly cloudy skies from the overnight will continue for Sunday for most of the state, however, mostly cloudy skies may fill in the west as another round of showers/thunderstorms makes its' way into the forecast. Highs during the afternoon should reach the lower 70s in northeast Iowa to near 80 in the southwest. The rain chances will increase during the overnight hours on Sunday night, mainly over central and western Iowa. Low temperatures will be in the mid 50s to near 60 across the state...

Rain chances look to continue on Monday and Monday night, followed by a very chilly week for the entire state. Highs in the 60s and some lows in the 30s for some areas!! Look for those details in later updates...

College Football Forecast
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Iowa Hawkeyes -- 11:05 AM @ Iowa City

Pre-game festivities shouldn't have any problems, under partly cloudy skies and winds from the southeast at fairly light rates. Temperatures should start out in the upper 50s, but reach into the mid 60s as game time approaches. Kick-off just after 11 AM should have a temperature around 67 degrees with partly cloudy skies, those southeasterly winds should continue at 5-10 mph. The cold front should approach the stadium near halftime, with winds becoming easterly near 10 mph with gusts upwards of 15 mph. Skies should become mostly cloudy, and a few showers and even a thunderstorm isn't out of the question for the second half of the game. The temperature should still rise into the mid 70s for the game, but some wet conditions may yield some chilly fans if they aren't prepared.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

September 23 Lightning Pictures

I decided that I would upload some of the pictures that I took last night of the lightning near Ames, Iowa between 8 PM and around 9 PM. I was positioned southwest of Ames waiting for the storms to arrive, they were previously severe warned, but at the time of arrival to my location the storms featured only 40 mph winds and some heavy rain. The lightning even within the core of the storm was quite impressive, several CG strikes that were nearby to create amazing thunder.

The images that I captured were definitely not the greatest, as the heavy rains and windy conditions meant that I couldn't pull out the tripod. This led me to capture all of the images featured by holding the camera against the door frame and using manual shutter release. Another problem with the photos was the manual focus was off, creating many of the images to look 'soft' or in other words, the lightning isn't the sharpest that it could have been. Either way, no amazing shots that I really missed out on, so chalk it up as having to be more prepared next time.

September 23 Lightning Gallery

As you can see, this is a new type of setup that I have for this gallery. I believe that with time I will make all my galleries in this format, or some variation of sorts. Using the flash slideshow leaves the images clearer, and with less distortion compared to my ongoing gallery I have now. Let me know what you think of the new format, and which one you'd rather see!

Storm Totals

Thunderstorms and showers have become fairly limited across the state, with only southeastern Iowa expected to receive any additional rainfall today, however, these amounts should remain under a tenth of an inch. While the southeast remains mostly cloudy, the rest of the state should see partly cloudy skies once the dense fog lifts. Expects the high temperatures to range from the mid 70s to near 80 from north to south across the state. Lows tonight should range from the upper 40s in northeastern Iowa, to the mid 50s across northwest and southeast Iowa, and then the upper 50s to near 60 across southwest Iowa. We'll also see the chance for additional showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast after midnight for areas of western Iowa (mainly northwest). These showers and storms should continue over mainly northwest Iowa on Thursday morning, while the rest of the state should remain dry. Highs on Thursday should range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s from northeast to southwest. Lows overnight in the mid 50s over eastern Iowa, to the lower 60s in western Iowa.

A look at some of the rainfall totals from yesterdays' and last nights' showers and storms:

Audubon - 3.59"
Mason City - 1.63"
Atlantic - 1.33"
Red Oak - 1.21"
Harlan - 0.68"
Ames - 0.47"
Pella - 0.33"
Sioux City - 0.32"
Des Moines - 0.17"
Ottumwa - 0.09"
Spencer - 0.04"
Cedar Rapids - 0.01"

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Continued Thunderstorms

Scattered thunderstorms developed across the state this afternoon, some of which became severe over southeast Iowa. These thunderstorms have continued to move northeastward during the afternoon/evening hours, and are continuing to develop across southeast Iowa. As we head into the day tomorrow, these thunderstorms should have moved across much of central Iowa and have become less numerous overnight. The severe weather threat with these storms should be fairly low, with only one or two warnings expected for mainly gusty winds.

At this time, areas that are west of a Forest City, to Carrol, to Omaha line, should be out of the thunderstorm chances. Areas east of there should continue to see thunderstorms throughout the night, or tomorrow morning. Storm total rainfall amounts should range between a quarter inch to an inch for the most part. Although some localized areas may see upwards of an inch or two inches where some training of the thunderstorm occurs.

Storm reports today have been for large hail, and a damaging wind gust; all of the reports have been fairly marginal with less than an inch diameter and wind gusts likely barely reaching 60 mph if at all.

Severe Weather Update (Sep. 23)

A line of showers and thunderstorms has been slowly progressing eastward through the morning and afternoon hours. This line of storms has developed along a differential heating axis that is approximately 50 miles east of the cold front. The cold front will likely move eastward and begin to push these thunderstorms off to the east with time, moving them into central Iowa by evening and into eastern Iowa during the overnight hours.

The Storm Prediction Center did issue a discussion earlier this afternoon indicating that given moderate heating and moisture ahead of the cold front and cloud cover, that a few storms may be capable of severe weather. If this does occur, a severe thunderstorm watch may be issued later this afternoon that may encompass much of the western half of the state. The main threats with any of the storms will be damaging winds and some large hail, although the gusty winds with any storms are likely to be above 40 mph given strong winds in general this afternoon/evening. Any later updates will include the issuance of watches/warnings, or a general update on the progression of the storms.