Severe Weather: March 22

A strong trough, which may be closed, will move out of the inter-mountain west tonight and onto the plains states tomorrow. This trough with the combined dynamics of a mid-level jet, vorticity maxima, and other details will allow for a potentially significant severe weather event across the plains states tomorrow. This has prompted the SPC to issue a moderate risk across portions of the plains, and a slight risk for much of the state of Iowa.

An initial round of thunderstorms should develop along the strong southerly flow both at low and mid-levels tonight, these thunderstorms are likely to be elevated in nature with a marginal large hail threat through the nighttime and morning hours on Monday. These thunderstorms should initiate near the Missouri River around Midnight tonight, and move eastward with time through the night into central Iowa by sunrise. These thunderstorms may linger into eastern Iowa during the afternoon hours, however, with little in the way of severe weather.

As the mid-level jet and an increase in moisture/temperatures ahead of the cold front move into the central plains, a stronger threat of severe weather is likely to develop during the afternoon hours on Monday. Thunderstorms over SD/NE will continue to move eastward during the day, entering eastern SD/NE by afternoon. With the potential for instability and strong shear, both large hail and damaging winds, along with a few tornadoes may be possible if storms can remain discrete. As the cold front begins to sweep eastward during the evening and overnight hours, these storms should become more linear and move into Iowa. As they move quickly into the state during the evening/overnight hours on Monday into Tuesday they may pose both a wind and hail threat for the state. Additional updates are possible tomorrow for the severe weather threat for Iowa...

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Wonderful Weather Continues...

High temperatures over the past couple of days have been well above normal, and prompted many people to get outside and enjoy it! Today is likely to be the last day with temperatures well above normal, as a cold front will sweep over the state tonight and into early tomorrow. No significant chances of rain showers are in the forecast with the passage of the front, just a cool down of 10-20 degrees of those high from today and yesterday. That still means temperatures in the 40s and 50s throughout the state, which is still right around normal for this time of year.

Highs today should range from the mid 60s to the mid 70s from north to south across the state, with warm southerly winds and clear skies. The cold front begins to make its' way into western Iowa tonight; with a slight chance of a few showers or otherwise partly cloudy skies with lows in the 30s across the northwest and the 40s over the remainder of the state. This front will continue to move across the state on Wednesday, with a chance of showers and otherwise cloudy skies across much of the state. High temperatures should range from the mid 50s to near 60 from northwest to southeast. The skies will clear out for Wednesday night, with low temperatures in the upper 20s across the north to the mid 30s over the south.

The remainder of the work week will have high temperatures in the 50s on Thursday, and then the 50s and a few 60s southwest on Friday. Low temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s from east to west on Thursday night will warm up by Friday night when lows should range from the mid 30s to the lower 40s from east to west. We'll bring in the chance at a few showers for the state for both the beginning and the end of the weekend... Enjoy the mild week ahead...

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Warming Up!

Nice southerly winds and clear skies will give way to warming temperatures throughout the weekend and into early next week. Even though a cool-down will come during next week, temperatures still look to remain above normal through the remainder of the week. Current temperatures for this Friday afternoon range from the lower 30s to upper 30s from north to south; although a few 40s are creeping into the western part of the state. Expect a few more degrees of warming as skies clear, with highs into the upper 30s to upper 40s by the time we begin to fall back down in the late afternoon hours.

Lows tonight should be in the low to mid 20s; with highs tomorrow into the upper 40s to mid 50s from northeast to southwest across the state. Saturday and Sunday night lows will be in the 30s throughout the state, with Sunday being just a few degrees warmer. Sunday temperatures will increase another few degrees, into the lower to mid 50s across the state. Monday temperatures will be even higher, from near 60 to the upper 60s from northeast to southwest across the state. Tuesday high temperatures will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s; and then into the upper 40s to upper 50s come Wednesday... More on next weeks' temperatures on Monday! Enjoy the weekend...

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Winter Storm: Mar 10

Although only a small portion of the state will see winter precipitation, this will still be one of the main highlights of our storm system that is currently effecting the state. While thunderstorms and showers should dominate the forecast for all but northwest Iowa, this will create the potential for additional flooding and overall saturated conditions. Storm total precipitation should range from a few tenths across the diagonal of the state to upwards of a half inch across southeast Iowa. These heavier amounts are likely to come from isolated thunderstorms, some of which over extreme southeast Iowa may be able to reach severe limits with strong winds and large hail. Across northwest Iowa, a mixture of sleet and snow seems likely, along with some freezing rain during the early hours of the event. Snow accumulations should generally only be 1-3 inches for areas that are currently under a Winter Weather Advisory; other parts of the state bordering this advisory will see snowfall but generally no accumulations.

The other part of this storm system will be the cold air funneling in behind the low pressure system, and the strong winds that will move in tomorrow afternoon and overnight. Highs tomorrow will range from near 20 in northwest Iowa as they remain to in the cold air; while southwest Iowa will attempt to reach the 60s in the warm sector of the low pressure system. The cold air moves through the entire state by Tuesday night, bringing lows down into the single digits across northwest Iowa and the upper teens across southeast Iowa. Highs on Wednesday will only reach the teens across the northwest, and the lower 30s across the southeast. We'll look to slowly warm-up through the week, and continue to warm into the weekend.

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Severe & Winter Storm: Mar. 7-8 Update #1

While the southern two-thirds of the state continues to see rain and thunderstorms this morning, precipitation is also beginning to move into parts of northwest and northern Iowa where they are expecting winter-type precipitation through this afternoon. While roadways are wet throughout much of the state, there are now reports across northwest Iowa indicating that roadways are beginning to become covered in snow/sleet and are freezing over.

Precipitation is expected to continue across the entire state through the early afternoon hours, with mainly rain expected south of a Onawa to Fort Dodge to Mason City to LaCrosse, WI line. North of that line, a mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow is expected. The heaviest snow amounts are expected across northwest Iowa, where 1-3 inches of accumulation may be seen with a mixture of sleet. Other parts of northern and western Iowa are likely to see a combination of precip-types, and a total of 1-2 inches of accumulation by the end of the afternoon.

Expect the low pressure system to move into Illinois by this afternoon, which will begin to pull the precip out of the state. Currently it looks like by mid-afternoon all but the northeast quarter of the state will become dry; northeast Iowa should see an end to the precip by the end of the evening.

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Severe & Winter Storm: Mar. 7-8

As we head into the weekend, showers and thunderstorms are entering portions of western and southern Iowa. These showers and thunderstorms will likely continue across the state throughout the nighttime hours, and through the afternoon tomorrow. Total rainfall amounts may be quite heavy, greater than an inch in most areas, with up to 2-3 inches possible across parts of the state. Due to this heavy amount of rain this early in the spring, the Davenport NWS has issued a flash flood watch across its' entire area. The Des Moines NWS did state that rises in rivers are expected, although they expect it to remain with the banks for most, if not all, rivers.

Overnight tonight, and potentially late Saturday night, there is the potential for some severe thunderstorms. Overnight tonight, the main threat with any thunderstorm will be the potential for marginally severe hail. This has already occurred over northern Missouri, and will not be surprised to see a few warnings across the southern half of the state for some 3/4" to 1" diameter hail. Thunderstorms on Saturday are expected to initiate over Kansas, where clear skies or at least more favorable conditions will give way to new development. This may congeal into a larger complex of storms that will move northeast into the overnight. This complex of storms may reach the far southern counties in the state, giving them the chance at some additional large hail and/or damaging winds.

Another complex situation occurs beginning Saturday night, as cold air enters the state behind the exiting low pressure system that will be over eastern Iowa. This cold air both at the surface and aloft will give way to frozen precipitation over much of northern Iowa. Currently the NWS in Sioux Falls has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for portions of northwest Iowa where a combination of freezing rain and accumulation snow is likely to occur Saturday night and into early Sunday. Some portions of northern Iowa have the potential for 3-6 inches of snow according to the latest models; with some higher amounts even being forecasted in both the NAM and GFS. Expect a combination of freezing rain and snow on Saturday night anywhere north of Highway 20; with accumulations of snow being likely. The amounts are going to be hard to pinpoint, given that the speed and amount of cold air will determine how quickly in changes over and thus how much snow places will see.

Be sure to check out the latest radar image on the Iowa Chaser Homepage: http://www.iowachaser.com

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Record Warmth!

With the southerly flow and clear skies, temperatures today soared well above what forecasts were predicting. This is one case where a missed forecast won't get the public riled up... Temperatures across the state ranged from the 50s across northwest Iowa, into the upper 60s across much of northeast Iowa; and then near 70 or well into the 70s for much of the southern portion of the state. Although an official statement regarding any records will likely be issued tonight, it appears safe to assume that several cities have at least tied if not broke their record high for today!

Hope everyone got out to enjoy it! Tomorrow looks to be a little cooler, and with plenty of rain, thunderstorms, and potentially frozen precipitation for some parts of the state over the weekend. Additional details on the weekend storm will be posted in tomorrows update...

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Spring Feel...

For the remainder of the work week the state will be in a spring-like feeling, with temperatures well above normal under clear skies and strong southerly flow. The portions of western and northern Iowa that previously had snow-cover saw it all melt away today under the clear skies and temperatures into the 40s. The portions of the state without snow-cover saw temperatures into the 50s. This warming trend will continue for tomorrow and steady-off for Friday, just before our next system moves in for the weekend.

Temperatures on Thursday will range from the mid 50s in the north to the mid 60s in the south. Clear skies and strong southerly winds of 10-20 mph will keep it feeling just slightly cooler than that. Low temperatures on Thursday night will be from near 30 in the northwest corner, to the mid 40s in the southeast. Friday will once again be above normal, partly cloudy skies will allow plenty of sunshine. However, a high pressure system located over the state will keep the strong southerly flow away from the state and thus slightly cooler. Highs in the lower 50s to lower 60s from north to south are expected. Friday night lows will range from near 30 in northwest Iowa to the mid 40s in southern Iowa once again.

A low pressure system should begin to effect the state on Saturday, with a warm front moving into the state with warm and moist conditions just south. Thunderstorms look to be a distinct possibility across southern Iowa, with general showers across the northern half. Some previous forecasts had mentioned the possibility for a rain/snow mix during the height of precipitation. Currently it looks to remain too warm until Saturday night for any frozen precip, but forecasters are going to be watching closely to see how the forecast evolves.

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Winter Storm: Feb 27-28

Another round of winter weather is likely to effect at least the western half of the state tomorrow evening and overnight. Eastern Iowa will likely be spared, with only flurries and cloudy skies as they head into the weekend. As for the western half, a shortwave in the mid-levels will spark off some additional snow-showers tomorrow afternoon over the Dakotas. These snow-showers will move southeast with time tomorrow, following an axis close to the Missouri River. With cold temperatures in place, this will be an all snow event throughout the northern plains. Snowfall totals should range from 2-4 inches through the eastern half of Nebraska, and much of the western half of Iowa. A few areas may be able to sneak by with a little less, and others a little more (up to 5 inches).

Beyond this storm system, we look to stay dry until late next week...

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Winter Storm: Feb. 26 Recap

The bulk of the storm has moved off into the Great Lakes region, with some lingering thunderstorms across the central plains (MO/AR). Behind the system, strong northwest winds along with some lingering precipitation are still creating some hazardous conditions. Those that received several tenths of freezing rain today are now seeing some power problems due to the winds bouncing the power lines. Road conditions currently indicate that much of north-central and northwest Iowa has ice/sleet covering them. Parts of northern Iowa may see some light to moderate snow overnight as the wrap-around precipitation from the strong low moves to the south out of Minnesota.

The Des Moines NWS did not receive any significant reports of ice accumulation and sleet, with many areas receiving less than a tenth of an inch of ice or less than a half inch of sleet. The more impressive reports may have been with the up to an inch diameter hail that fell within the Des Moines metro just after Noon. You can read the entire summary of their local storm report's here: Des Moines NWS LSR's

Sioux Falls NWS and northwest Iowa received some more impressive amounts, with nearly a quarter-inch of ice accumulation near Spencer this morning. A new report this evening from Spirit Lake mentions that they have just over an inch of snow with a glaze of ice as well. You can read the Sioux Falls NWS listing of local storm reports here: Sioux Falls NWS LSR's

Both Omaha and Davenport NWS offices saw mainly rain across their region, thus the lack of winter-type reports. Some heavy rain reports, and hail reports came in with the thunderstorms that moved across their forecast areas. The NWS office in LaCrosse that covers parts of northeast Iowa saw mainly snow today, with the greater amounts in Minnesota and Wisconsin. All of the Iowa reports looked to be under 2 inches of snow...

Look forward to the next storm system that will begin to effect the state already tomorrow afternoon! Details in the next update...

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