A 'Normal' Start to November

After a top ten coldest and wettest month of October across the state of Iowa, and likely so for nearby areas as well, we look to start off the first full week of November in a fairly 'normal' fashion.  Temperatures look to be near normal, likely a few degrees below; and precipitation looks to be intermittent and with total accumulations of a few tenths at most during each of the events.  This sounds much better to those who are wanting to enjoy a little bit of the fall season and is especially helpful for the farmers still wanting to get into the field to complete their harvesting.  Unfortunately, the ground is very wet from the past weeks of rain, and will likely still take several days of dry and sunny weather to dry out the crop.  With light rains potentially in the forecast for this week, we may see the harvesting continue to be delayed by a wet crop.

High temperatures through the week look to range from the lower to upper 50s from roughly north to south on Monday, which will likely be the warmest day of the week.  Continued temperatures ranging from the lower 50s to mid 50s from northeast to southwest across the state through the remainder of the week.  A few locations in northeast Iowa may only see the highs in the upper 40s, as they will remain the cool spot as the upper level trough is steady across the Great Lakes and northeast regions.  Low temperatures will vary a little more, with upper 20s to mid 30s on Monday night from northeast to southwest.  Lower to upper 30s from north to south can be expected on Tuesday and Wednesday night; with a degree or two drop for Thursday and Friday nights' lows.

Precipitation chances enter the forecast due to the passing of two shortwaves that ride the flow across the northern plains on Tuesday and Thursday.  Tuesday's precipitation chances are best throughout the day across the state, higher in the west during the morning hours and in the east during the evening.  Total accumulations expected between a few hundredths to a couple of tenths at most for Tuesday's system.  Thursday's precipitation chances are best during the afternoon and evening hours across the state, with total accumulations of up to a quarter-inch possible.  This is a generalized pattern over the state of Iowa for the week, so you can expect some portions to miss out on these small rainfalls while others may receive the brunt of both systems.

Looking out beyond this week, models are beginning to indicate another large trough to work its' way onto the plains for the time frame of Nov. 9-11.  Precipitation chances are very hard to nail down at this point, and temperatures may see a small window of above normal before likely falling below normal for the remainder of the week (Nov. 12-14) across much of the northern plains.  More details on that system in later updates...