Mixed Bag...

A decent storm system is spinning over the central plains states, bringing rainfall to much of the plains states. A few severe thunderstorms, even a couple tornado warnings, are ongoing over Texas and previously in Kansas. The event for Iowa is just beginning, as one weakening band of rainfall is moving through southwest Iowa and should continue to move northeast into the early overnight. Additional bands of rain are currently over Kansas and Missouri and will move north overnight along with the low pressure system. This precip that is currently rain will move into a little cooler air at the surface, leading up to the possibility of sleet and freezing rain for a portion of the state. As the cool air continues to build in the atmosphere thanks to both strong updrafts (adiabatic cooling) and a lot of falling precip (evaporative cooling) we could see more snow over the northern third of the state. This additional cool air may also allow areas that currently are only expecting rain or freezing rain to see some quick bursts of snow. Essentially there are a lot of scenarios playing out with this storm system, meaning that you should be prepared for anything come tomorrow!

Temperatures were held a little cooler today than expected, which leads to discussion on the better potential for freezing rain tomorrow morning. A lot of information could be thrown out on how freezing rain is more likely even though temperatures have been below or around freezing throughout the past 48 hours. Warm air aloft, cold surfaces, cooling due to strong lift or precip falling, etc. all could lead to different scenarios. I'll just go into the current forecast for the next 36 hours and we'll see how well it works out over the course of tomorrow:

Tonight's lows will range from the mid 20s to the mid 30s from northeast to southwest, the lows will be kept higher over a majority of the state due to the cloud cover that has already made its' way in. As previously mentioned, the rain showers over southwest Iowa will slowly move over parts of western and central Iowa early tonight. Additional rainfall, freezing rain, sleet, and some snow, will move into the western half of the state before sunrise. The rain will continue to expand and increase across the entire state throughout the day on Tuesday. So the question isn't if you'll get the precip, but rather what kind of precip you'll get. Currently it looks like areas north of highway 30 will be in the area of freezing rain and sleet, with some rain by mid-afternoon. Once you go north of highway 20 then you'll be cool enough to see the freezing rain and snow, with accumulations fairly likely. The precip will begin to move out Tuesday night as the overall strength of the system weakens, and by the end of morning on Wednesday we'll see the all clear for precip. Tuesday night temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s from northwest to southeast...

In the end, snow accumulations north of highway 20 should range from a dusting to near 2 inches. Areas to the south may see a dusting at most, with some bursts of snow being possible. Freezing rain accumulations shouldn't be significant, likely under a tenth, but even a few hundredths is enough to create hazardous travel. Rainfall amounts over the southern third should be a few tenths to near a half inch total. Plenty of different scenarios, so we'll see how this plays out... Just be prepared for some slick conditions across the state for tomorrow and tomorrow night.